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美國的消費互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司能否在中國做大,？這個長期困擾硅谷的問題正開始變成一項緊迫的戰(zhàn)略任務(wù),。
中國市場本身并非一個誘人的目標(biāo)。風(fēng)險在于,，美國公司的市場份額可能被中國蓬勃發(fā)展的國內(nèi)市場上的新興本土競爭對手奪走,，后者剛開始邁出走向全球的嘗試性步伐。美國公司本身習(xí)慣于利用巨大國內(nèi)市場的主導(dǎo)地位作為走向世界的跳板,，他們應(yīng)理解其中的利害,。
打車應(yīng)用優(yōu)步(Uber)和空中食宿(Airbnb)是共享經(jīng)濟的“陰陽”兩面，它們是最新兩家想碰碰運氣的公司,。喜歡直接破門而入的Uber正與中國一家本土競爭對手較勁,，后者得到中國兩家志向遠(yuǎn)大的全球競爭者騰訊(Tencent)和阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的支持。而喜歡采用對抗性不那么強的策略的Airbnb最近拉到一些頗具影響力的盟友,，希望用自己的方式進軍中國,。
這兩家公司的通盤計劃都把“本地化”放在突出位置。具備合適的管理層和本地后臺及支持者，肯定會有所幫助,。知道何時修改全球成功方程式也很關(guān)鍵,。eBay在中國的失利，仍是說明適應(yīng)性強的本地競爭對手能夠勝出的典型案例,。阿里巴巴讓買家免費展示商品,，并引入支付服務(wù)以降低欺詐風(fēng)險,，這些都比eBay高明一些,。
Uber和Airbnb至少具備一個相對于谷歌(Google)和雅虎(Yahoo)等公司的優(yōu)勢，后兩者已在中國折戟：Uber和Airbnb不直接涉足在線媒體和通信業(yè)務(wù),，這讓它們不那么容易成為威權(quán)政府瞄準(zhǔn)的目標(biāo),。
然而，任何成功的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司在一定程度上都是對現(xiàn)狀的挑戰(zhàn),。中國控制網(wǎng)絡(luò)的最新姿態(tài)（警察進駐互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司辦公地點）表明,，成功的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司可能會具備過大的影響力，無論它們處于哪個市場縫隙,。
一個原因是它們持有的數(shù)據(jù)的規(guī)模和范圍,。有關(guān)一國公民活動的巨大數(shù)據(jù)庫是一項關(guān)鍵資產(chǎn)。隨著各個勝出的平臺把觸角伸入更多在線（以及越來越多的線下）生活領(lǐng)域,，這可能還只是一個開始,。
在本土保管這些數(shù)據(jù)，可能會讓當(dāng)局更有信心認(rèn)為,，他們能夠在需要時利用這些數(shù)據(jù)：Uber在華業(yè)務(wù)設(shè)有境內(nèi)數(shù)據(jù)中心,。但仍有一個問題：能否相信一家外國公司像本土競爭對手那樣依從？
另一個不利于外國公司的因素是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)市場的競爭演變方式,。很多競爭搞到最后成了“贏者通吃”,，拔得頭籌的公司變成實力中心。
Uber這種懷有巨大雄心的公司突顯了其中的風(fēng)險,。它渴望成為所有大城市不可或缺的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的一部分,，不僅提供個人交通，還要染指物流,。中國地方政府可能反對外國公司控制如此關(guān)鍵的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,，即便Uber承諾幫助中國污染嚴(yán)重且交通擁堵的城市解決私人汽車保有量增加所帶來的一些問題。
現(xiàn)在的一個關(guān)鍵問題在于,，最新一批有志進軍中國市場的美國公司,，準(zhǔn)備在多大程度上變得真正“本地化”，以消除中國方面的疑慮,。Uber在中國的融資安排最耐人尋味,。該公司已擁有中方投資者，現(xiàn)在正試圖為另一家在華公司搞定一輪融資，讓外部投資者直接投資Uber的這塊在華業(yè)務(wù),。
Uber發(fā)言人表示,，該公司還在考慮未來將其在華業(yè)務(wù)在中國國內(nèi)上市，盡管目前還沒有這方面的計劃,。
鑒于巨大的資本需求以及中國打車應(yīng)用大戰(zhàn)尤為激烈,，引入本土投資者將是有幫助的。這種結(jié)構(gòu)還將賦予Uber更大靈活性,，便于以后調(diào)整,，例如引入本土合作伙伴，或者甚至（在被迫的情況下）減持在華業(yè)務(wù)的股權(quán),。
但對于任何一家美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司而言,，保持控制權(quán)將是優(yōu)先任務(wù)。雅虎10年前決定將其步履維艱的中國業(yè)務(wù)并入阿里巴巴,，而那個決定結(jié)果成為史上最成功的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)投資之一,。但如今，在雅虎準(zhǔn)備脫手這部分少數(shù)股權(quán)的剩余股權(quán)之際,，雅虎的地位下降表露無遺,。這是后來者要努力避免的命運。
Can a US consumer internet company ever make it big in China? That question, which has longdogged Silicon Valley, is starting to take on the urgency of a strategic imperative.
It isn’t just that China is a juicy target in its own right. There is a risk to ceding ground toemerging Chinese rivals in their booming home market at a time when those companies aretaking their first, tentative steps towards going global. US companies, themselvesaccustomed to using dominance of a massive domestic market as a launch pad to take onthe world, should understand what’s at stake.
Uber and Airbnb, the yin and yang of the sharing economy, are the latest to try their luck. Theride-hailing app that likes to batter down doors is in a pitched battle with a Chinese localcompetitor backed by two of those aspiring global players, Tencent and Alibaba. Airbnb, whichprefers a less confrontational approach, this week lined upsome influential allies as it seeksits own way in.
“Localisation” figures prominently in both companies’ game plans. Having the rightmanagement and local backers and supporters certainly helps. Knowing when to adapt asuccessful global formula will also be key. The failure in China of eBay, which was outflankedby Alibaba’s free listings for buyers and its introduction of a payment service to reduce fraudrisks, is still a case study in how an adaptable local rival can come out on top.
Uber and Airbnb at least have one advantage over companies like Google and Yahoo, whichfailed before them: they aren’t directly involved in the online media and communicationsbusinesses, making them less obviously targets of an authoritarian state.
But any successful internet business is to some extent a challenge to the status quo. China’slatest gesture towards online control — to station police officers physically inside internetcompanies — is an indication of the outsized influence that the successful internet companiescan have, whatever corner of the market they are in.
One reason is the amount and range of the data they hold. Amassing a giant database aboutthe movements of a nation’s citizens is a key asset. And that is likely to be only a startingpoint, as the winning platforms reach into more areas of online (and, increasingly, offline) life.
Holding the data locally might give authorities greater confidence that they can tap into it whenthey need: Uber has data centres for its operations inside China. But there is still a questionabout whether a foreign company could ever be trusted to be as compliant as a localcompetitor.
Another factor that weighs on foreign players is the way that competition tends to evolve ininternet markets. Many turn into winner-takes-all affairs, with the companies that come out ontop ending up as centres of power in their own right.
The immodest ambitions of a company like Uber highlight what is at stake. It aspires tobecome an essential part of the infrastructure of any big city, not only supplying personaltransport but also handling logistics. Local governments in China may resist foreign controlof something so essential, even if Uber promises to help solve some of the problems causedby swelling personal car ownership for China’s polluted and traffic-clogged cities.
A key question now will be how far the latest US aspirants are prepared to go to become truly“local” to overcome reservations like these. Uber’s funding arrangements for China are themost intriguing. It already has Chinese investors and is now trying to close a funding roundfor a separate Chinese unit, bringing outside investors directly into the business.
An Uber spokesperson says the company is also contemplating a local initial public offering,some time in the future, for its Chinese arm, though there are no plans for a one at themoment.
Given its huge need for capital and the particularly cut-throat nature of the Chinese taxi appwars, local investors will be useful. A structure like this would also give Uber more flexibility toadapt later — for instance by bringing in local partners or even, if forced, to reduce its stake inthe Chinese venture.
But for any US internet company, staying in the driving seat will be a priority. Yahoo’sdecision to fold its struggling Chinese business into Alibaba a decade ago turned into one ofthe most successful internet investments ever made. But now, as it gets ready to spin outwhat’s left of that minority stake, Yahoo’s diminished role is all too obvious. That is a fate itssuccessors will be working hard to avoid.
