對(duì)許多南美國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來(lái)說(shuō),,本周來(lái)訪的中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)選擇了一個(gè)絕佳的時(shí)機(jī),,并且來(lái)自一個(gè)再好不過(guò)的國(guó)家。根據(jù)《中國(guó)-拉美經(jīng)濟(jì)通報(bào)》(China-Latin America Eco
nomic Bulletin),,中國(guó)一直與拉美往來(lái)密切,,已超過(guò)美國(guó)成為南美在本地區(qū)之外的最大出口目的國(guó)。
此外,,中國(guó)還剛剛與委內(nèi)瑞拉和厄瓜多爾簽署了數(shù)額龐大的貸款協(xié)議,,并在今年1月簽署了一項(xiàng)意義重大的中國(guó)-拉美合作計(jì)劃,承諾將雙邊貿(mào)易額提高5000億美元,,將投資提高2500億美元,,并在科技、貿(mào)易和環(huán)境保護(hù)方面展開(kāi)合作,。
現(xiàn)在輪到了巴西,、秘魯、智利和哥倫比亞,,這四國(guó)是此次李克強(qiáng)出訪的目的地,。外界預(yù)期中國(guó)將開(kāi)始落實(shí)上述合作計(jì)劃,并簽署科技,、貿(mào)易和貨幣互換方面的新協(xié)議,。
中國(guó)-拉美金融數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(China-Latin America Finance database)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)為拉美各國(guó)政府提供的貸款已經(jīng)超過(guò)了世界銀行(World Bank)和美洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(Inter-American Development Bank)的總和,,據(jù)此來(lái)看,,預(yù)期中國(guó)將進(jìn)行大舉投資是合理的?;蛟S還會(huì)出現(xiàn)更多像兩洋鐵路(從秘魯?shù)桨臀鳎┻@樣的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,。
根據(jù)IMF,2014年拉美地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)僅增長(zhǎng)1.4%,預(yù)計(jì)今年將增長(zhǎng)不到1%,。與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,,在2003年到2013年興起主要由中國(guó)需求驅(qū)動(dòng)的大宗商品熱潮(China Boom,下文簡(jiǎn)稱:中國(guó)熱潮)期間,,拉美地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)3%,,主要?dú)w功于中國(guó)對(duì)拉美大宗商品的需求,以及大宗商品稀缺性和投機(jī)活動(dòng)帶來(lái)的價(jià)格上揚(yáng),。
那樣的日子已經(jīng)過(guò)去,。隨著中國(guó)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行再平衡,中國(guó)的需求出現(xiàn)放緩,,這壓低了全球的大宗商品價(jià)格,。增長(zhǎng)率的下滑讓拉美人意識(shí)到政府并未將從“中國(guó)熱潮”中獲得的大部分收入用于投資。固定資本形成總額占該地區(qū)GDP的比例僅為19.6%,,遠(yuǎn)低于增長(zhǎng)與發(fā)展委員會(huì)(Commission on Growth and Development)和其他機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為的國(guó)家發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)所需的25%水平,。厄瓜多爾、哥倫比亞和秘魯?shù)倪@一比例高于平均水平,,但離25%還差得遠(yuǎn),,而阿根廷,、巴西和委內(nèi)瑞拉的投資率則非常低,。
根據(jù)IMF的研究,盡管此次“中國(guó)熱潮”是該地區(qū)歷來(lái)持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng),、獲利最多的一次大宗商品熱潮,,但大多數(shù)拉美國(guó)家在這次熱潮中存下的資金沒(méi)有它們?cè)谶^(guò)去幾次熱潮中多。聯(lián)合國(guó)拉丁美洲及加勒比經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)(ECLAC)今年的年度報(bào)告還提出,,拉美各國(guó)政府的新增稅收收入與此次熱潮也不成比例,。
因此,這也難怪拉美地區(qū)幾乎沒(méi)有為提高大宗商品以外行業(yè)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力進(jìn)行投資,。2003年以來(lái),,拉美78%以上的制造業(yè)出口商品在全球市場(chǎng)中所占份額減少了。
此外,,中國(guó)熱潮讓拉美付出了巨大的社會(huì)和環(huán)境代價(jià),,這些代價(jià)并未有效減輕。一項(xiàng)新研究報(bào)告《中國(guó)在拉美:對(duì)南南合作和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的教訓(xùn)》(China in Latin America: Lessons for South-South Cooperation and Sustainable Development)表明,,初級(jí)大宗商品開(kāi)采(例如石油,、銅、鐵礦石,、錫,、大豆等等)造成了環(huán)境退化。
因此,最近這輪中國(guó)熱潮加大了該地區(qū)水路,、森林以及其他資源的壓力,,突顯出對(duì)人類(lèi)健康、生物多樣性,、全球氣候變化以及當(dāng)?shù)孛裆耐{,。根據(jù)這份報(bào)告,與該地區(qū)的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)相比,,拉美對(duì)華出口的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)(過(guò)去10年,,中國(guó)是拉美增長(zhǎng)最快的出口目的地)排放的溫室氣體是整體水平的近兩倍,耗費(fèi)的水資源是整體水平的10倍,。
因此,,貨幣互換和貿(mào)易談判、科學(xué)技術(shù)協(xié)議以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施融資將非常受歡迎,。實(shí)際上,,拉美每年在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的資金缺口占該地區(qū)GDP的6.2%,而且IMF表示,,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資給其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域帶來(lái)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)最大,。
中國(guó)和拉美還應(yīng)努力確保將同樣的注意力放在與雙方經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面。這意味著將雙方經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系所帶來(lái)的收益投資于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提升以及社會(huì)和環(huán)境保護(hù)方面,。
然而,,如果拉美沒(méi)有正確管理其自然資源,它們獲得相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)的來(lái)源將減弱,,進(jìn)而會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯以及選舉失敗,。如果中國(guó)沒(méi)有緩和其在該地區(qū)貿(mào)易和投資的負(fù)面影響,中國(guó)將喪失在這個(gè)他們正長(zhǎng)期押注的地區(qū)的正面形象,,同時(shí)也將損失大量資金,。
凱文•P•加拉格爾(Kevin P.Gallagher)是波士頓大學(xué)帕迪全球研究學(xué)院(Pardee School of Global Studies)全球發(fā)展政策教授,該院“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理計(jì)劃”(Global Eco
nomic Governance Initiative)的負(fù)責(zé)人之一,。他即將出版的著作為《中國(guó)三角:拉美的中國(guó)熱潮以及華盛頓共識(shí)的命運(yùn)》(The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus),。(
中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
To many South American leaders, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit this week couldn’t come at a better time, and from a better country. China has been busy with Latin America, surpassing the United States as South America’s leading export destination outside of the region, according to the China-Latin America Economic Bulletin.
What is more, the ink is barely dry on big loan agreements to Venezuela and Ecuador, or a major China-Latin America cooperation plan signed in January that pledges to increase trade by $500bn and investment by $250bn and to cooperate on science and technology, trade, and environmental protection.
Now it’s the turn of Brazil, Peru, Chile, and Colombia, all destinations on Li’s itinerary. The Chinese are expected start implementing the cooperation plan with new agreements on science, trade, and currency swaps.
Expectations of considerable Chinese investments seem justified by Beijing’s track record of providing more than the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank combined in loans for Latin American governments, according to the China-Latin America Finance database. There will likely be more of the same for infrastructure projects such as the Twin Ocean Railroad from Peru to Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Latin American growth is expected to dip below one per cent this year, after a disappointing 2014 of 1.4 per cent. That stands in stark contrast to the region’s “China Boom” from 2003 to 2013 when the region grew over 3 per cent per year thanks in large part to Chinese demand for Latin America’s commodities and the subsequent uptick in prices that came along with scarcity and speculation.
Those days are gone. China’s demand has slowed as it rebalances its economy, dampening commodity prices worldwide. With growth sliding, Latin Americans are realising that their governments did not invest much of the proceeds from the China boom. Gross fixed capital formation in the region was a paltry 19.6 per cent, far short of the 25 per cent recommended by the Growth Commission and other bodies for nations needing to develop their economies. Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru were above average though still nowher near 25 per cent, while in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela the investment rates were anemic.
According to research by the IMF, although the China-led commodity boom was among the longest and most lucrative in the region’s history, most Latin American countries saved less of these windfalls than they have in past booms. This year’s annual report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean adds that Latin American governments also failed to bring in new tax revenue in proportion to the windfalls as well.
It is thus no surprise that the region did little to invest into export competitiveness in sectors other than commodities. Over 78 per cent of Latin American manufacturing exports have lost global market share to their counterparts since 2003.
The China boom also came at significant social and environmental cost that was not properly mitigated. A new study, China in Latin America: Lessons for South-South Cooperation and Sustainable Development, shows how primary commodity exploitation – such as petroleum, copper, iron ore, tin, soybeans and the like – are endemic to environmental degradation.
The recent China-boom thus put increased pressure on the region’s waterways, forests, and other areas that accentuated threats to human health, biodiversity, global climate change, and local livelihoods. According to the report Latin American exports to China – the fastest growing export destination over the past decade – were close to twice as greenhouse gas intensive and ten times as water intensive than overall economic activity in the region.
So currency swaps and trade talks, science and technology agreements, and finance for infrastructure will be very welcome. Indeed, Latin America faces an annualinfrastructure gap of 6.2 per cent of GDP and the IMF says that infrastructure investment has the highest multiplier impact on the rest of the economy.
China and Latin America would also do well to ensure that equal attention go to risks associated with their economic relationship. That means investing the proceeds of the relationship in competitiveness, as well as in social and environmental protections.
If Latin Americans don’t manage their natural resources correctly, however, their very source of comparative advantage will dwindle, translating into lost growth and elections. If China doesn’t also mitigate the negative impacts of its trade and investment in the region, it will lose its positive image in a region they are making long term bets on–and lose a lot of money as well.
Kevin P. Gallagher is a professor of global development policy at Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies wher he co-directs the Global Economic Governance Initiative. His forthcoming book is The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus.