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剛邁人2011年,，匯豐銀行英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家凱倫?沃德就開始展望本世紀(jì)中葉的世界會(huì)是什么樣子,。
根據(jù)她的預(yù)測(cè),，到了2050年,，中國(guó)將取代美國(guó),成為世界上最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。
印度將位列第三,，日本緊跟其后,。
屆時(shí)排名前30的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中將有1外是今 天的“新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體”,它們聚合起的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力將超過發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家世界,。
歐洲的情況將如何呢？沃德女士預(yù)測(cè)德國(guó)將位居第五,接踵而至的是英國(guó),，排 名第六,，兩個(gè)國(guó)家的排名均比目前低一位。
法國(guó)則會(huì)下滑三位,，排到第九,位于巴西 和墨西哥之后,。意大利下滑四位,名列第11,排在加拿大之后，僅在土耳其之前,。
西班牙下降兩個(gè)名次,，至第14,落后于韓國(guó)，僅僅領(lǐng)先于俄羅斯,。
預(yù)計(jì)到2050年,，那時(shí)中國(guó)的年經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值將達(dá)到24.6萬億美元(參照2000年時(shí)美 元匯率),美國(guó)為22.3萬億美元，印度為8.2萬億美元，
日本是6.4萬億美元,，德國(guó)3.7萬 億美元,，英國(guó)3.6萬億美元,法國(guó)與意大利的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將分別達(dá)到2.8萬億和2.2萬億 美元。
為什么英國(guó)會(huì)取得相對(duì)不錯(cuò)的成績(jī)呢?這一答案部分是得益于人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué),而 這一因素也幫助了美國(guó),。
預(yù)測(cè)顯示,，到2050年，英國(guó)將擁有7200萬人口,，相比之下,， 德國(guó)人口數(shù)為7100萬人，法國(guó)為6800萬人,。
她還說,，在歐洲，那些人口少,、老齡化且富裕的經(jīng)濟(jì)體排名下降很大,，
值得注意的就是瑞士和荷蘭的排位將直線下滑，而瑞典,、比利時(shí),、奧地利、挪威和丹麥更是統(tǒng) 統(tǒng)跌出了前30名外,。
當(dāng)然,這并不會(huì)使它們變得窮困,。荷蘭雖下滑八位，成為排名第23位的世界經(jīng) 濟(jì)體,，但其人均收入預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到46000美元(參照2000年時(shí)美元匯率),
目前荷蘭人均 收人僅略高于26000美元,。擁有900萬人口的瑞士人均收入目前為39000美元，預(yù)計(jì)2050年將達(dá)到84000美元,。
而擁有14億人口的中國(guó)人均收人將從目前的2400美元增至1700C庚元,。
這項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)做出的前提是假定持續(xù)開放邊境、不爆發(fā)大規(guī)模的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重自然災(zāi)害.
上述計(jì)算基于三個(gè)決定性因素一這些因素來源于哈佛大學(xué)羅伯特巴羅的著作:人均收入的起始水平;
人力資本,，這涉及教育,、健康及生育水平;經(jīng)濟(jì)管理,
這是指諸如金融體系的穩(wěn)定性程度、產(chǎn)權(quán),、民主,、法制以及政府規(guī)模等一些可變因素。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
It's barely 2011 but Karen Ward at HSBC is looking ahead what the world will look like in the middle of the century.
By 2050, China is predicted to have overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy.
India is forecast to be in third place, followed by Japan.
Nineteen of the top 30 will be today's “emerging economies,” which will collectively be bigger than the developed world.
How does Europe look Ms. Ward puts Germany in fifth place, and on its heels in sixth, the U.K., both one slot lower than today.
France is down three slots in ninth, under Brazil and Mexico. Italy is down four places in 11th, below Canada and just ahead of Turkey.
Spain is down two places, to 14th, below South Korea and just ahead of Russia.
China’s annual economic output by 2050 is forecast to reach $24.6 trillion (in 2000 dollars), the U.S. $22.3 trillion, India $8.2 trillion,
Japan $6.4 trillion, Germany $3.7 trillion and the U.K. $3.6 trillion. France is a $2.8 trillion economy and Italy a $2.2 trillion one.
Why does the U.K. do relatively well? A good part of the answer is demography, a factor that helps the U.S. too.
By 2050, the U.K. will have 72 million people, compared with Germany’s 71 million and France's 68 million, the forecast suggests.
She adds: “The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers.
Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down2 the grid significantly3, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark dro out of our Top 30 altogether.”
Of course, that doesn’t make them poor. The Netherlands, down eight places as the world’s 23rd economy, is predicted to have per capitaincome of $46,000 (in 2000 dollars),
compared with just over $26,000 today. Switzerland’s 9 million people are forecast to enjoy an average income of $84,000, compared with $39,000 today.
China’s 1.4 billion people are forecast to have income of $17,000 per head, compared with $2,400.
The calculations assume continuing open borders and no major wars or natural disasters.
They are based on three determinants, drawing from the work of Harvard University’s Robert Barro: the starting level of per capita income;
human capital, which relates to levels of education, health and fertility; and economic governance,
which refers to the variables such as the degree of monetary stability, property rights, democracy, the rule of law and government size.
