非洲過去十年享受的穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟增長現(xiàn)在開始減緩,。全球大宗商品(尤其是石油)價格低迷,,而中國這個非洲最大的單一雙邊貿(mào)易伙伴的經(jīng)濟大幅放緩——它正在轉(zhuǎn)型擺脫投資拉動增長的模式,。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,中國投資增長率每下降1個百分點,,非洲出口增長率平均下降0.6個百分點,。中非密切的貿(mào)易關(guān)系解釋了,為何本月世界銀行(World Bank)在其《非洲脈搏》(Africa’s Pulse)年度報告中將非洲增長預(yù)測從2014年的4.6%下調(diào)至2015年的3.7%——這是自2009年遭受全球經(jīng)濟危機余波沖擊以來,,該地區(qū)將會出現(xiàn)的最低增長率,。非洲進入新的緩慢增長時期,,這要求非洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人做出新的創(chuàng)造性回應(yīng)。
盡管對非洲政策制定者來說,,大宗商品環(huán)境和中國經(jīng)濟放緩肯定是種挑戰(zhàn),,但它們也代表著獨特的機遇。非洲曾經(jīng)依賴有利的經(jīng)濟大環(huán)境,,滿足于市場的低效,,但現(xiàn)在這種做法不再可行。非洲各國政府將不得不適應(yīng)不利的全球趨勢,,從現(xiàn)有的結(jié)構(gòu)和系統(tǒng)中擠壓出更多的生產(chǎn)力,。東非已經(jīng)悄然在消除經(jīng)濟低效方面取得進展,它的成就值得其他非洲國家借鑒,。
東非國家——盧旺達(dá),、肯尼亞、烏干達(dá),、坦桑尼亞和布隆迪——在過去24個月里顯示了,,解決效率低下問題不僅是可能的,而且很快就會見效,。通過“北部走廊一體化項目”(Northern Corridor Integration Project),,烏干達(dá)、盧旺達(dá)和肯尼亞解決了長期的交通瓶頸問題,。由于地處內(nèi)陸,,盧旺達(dá)和烏干達(dá)依賴肯尼亞的蒙巴薩港口開展貿(mào)易,邊境效率過度低下導(dǎo)致貨運時間長,,成本極為昂貴且缺乏競爭力,。通過幾國總統(tǒng)定期會晤和政府重點關(guān)注,幾國現(xiàn)在能夠?qū)拿砂退_到烏干達(dá)坎帕拉的貨運時間從18天縮短至4天,,將從蒙巴薩到盧旺達(dá)基加利的貨運時間從21天縮短至5天,。幾國并未對公路或鐵路進行任何新的投資,而是通過針對性的消除效率低下問題就取得了上述進步,。
另一個鼓舞人心的例子是東非最近的電信改革政策,。東非共同體(East African Community)意識到,跨境運營時昂貴的漫游費阻礙了國家間的貿(mào)易,、通信和商務(wù),,并決定就此采取措施,??夏醽啞醺蛇_(dá)和盧旺達(dá)政府將阻礙自由通信的內(nèi)部壁壘視為深化共同市場的障礙,,并對Safaricom,、Airtel,、MTN以及其他電信運營商施加壓力,要求它們接受今年1月生效的單一網(wǎng)絡(luò)區(qū)域(One-Network-Area)協(xié)議,。在將撥打國外網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電話費率降低逾60%之后,,東非共同體成員國之間的漫游量立即達(dá)到驚人的數(shù)字??夏醽喭ㄐ殴芾砭謭蟾娣Q,,自建立單一網(wǎng)絡(luò)區(qū)域以來,盧旺達(dá)打入肯尼亞的電話漫游量增長951%,,肯尼亞打向國外的電話漫游量增長254%,,這意味著電信運營商的收入增加。近期在內(nèi)羅畢召開的“北部走廊峰會”將單一網(wǎng)絡(luò)區(qū)域擴大至包括數(shù)據(jù)在內(nèi),,以深化影響,。
通過政治意愿、通力協(xié)作和強力執(zhí)行,,東非國家釋放出了隱藏的價值。盧旺達(dá)總統(tǒng)保羅慍加梅(Paul Kagame)在談到這些努力時表示:“我們發(fā)現(xiàn),,我們有力量憑借東非已有的資源推動增長,。結(jié)果不僅有助于吸引新的投資伙伴,而且更重要的是提供共同解決未來幾年更大規(guī)模挑戰(zhàn)所需的動能,。”
看到取得的進步,,埃塞俄比亞和剛果民主共和國加入了北部走廊一體化項目。
在外部投資放緩和大多數(shù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目時間周期過長的情況下,,可以通過深思熟慮且執(zhí)行良好的集體措施解決經(jīng)濟效率低下問題,,從而提高短期生產(chǎn)力。如果非洲大陸其他國家效仿東非(無論是主動還是被動),,中國經(jīng)濟放緩可能為解決非洲長期存在的問題提供機會,,這些問題過去一直妨礙許多非洲國家充分釋放經(jīng)濟潛力。(中國進出口網(wǎng))
The steady economic growth that Africa has enjoyed over the past decade is now waning. Global commodity prices, particularly oil, have weakened and China, Africa’s largest individual bilateral trading partner, has slowed considerably as it rebalances itself away from investment and growth. According to the IMF, a 1 percentage point decrease in China’s investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s export growth rate. The depth of the China-Africa trade relationship explains why this month, the World Bank, in its annual Africa’s Pulse report, downgraded Africa’s growth projections from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.7 per cent in 2015 – the lowest growth the region will have seen since the ripples of the global economic crisis hit it in 2009. A new period of slow growth demands new and creative responses from African leaders.
While the commodity climate and China’s slowdown are certainly a challenge for African policymakers, they also present a unique opportunity. Relying on the beneficial economic climate that has fostered complacency with market inefficiencies is now no longer an option. Necessity will demand that African governments adapt to unfavourable global trends by squeezing greater productivity from the structures and systems that are already in place. East Africa is already quietly making strides in eliminating economic inefficiencies and the progress has much to teach the rest of the region.
East African countries – Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi – have demonstrated over the past 24 months that attacking inefficiencies is not only possible, but yields rapid returns. Through the Northern Corridor Integration Project, Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya have addressed longstanding bottlenecks in transportation. Being landlocked, Rwanda and Uganda rely on Kenya’s Mombasa port for trade, and a plethora of border inefficiencies made cargo travel times extremely costly and uncompetitive. Through regular meetings of the presidents of the countries and a focusing of government attention, the countries were able to reduce the travel time of cargo trucks from Mombasa to Kampala, Uganda from 18 days to 4 days, and between Mombasa and Kigali, Rwanda from 21 days to only 5 days. This progress was achieved from no new investment in roads or rail, but rather through the targeted elimination of inefficiencies.
Another inspiring example is East Africa’s recent telecom reform policies. The East African Community (EAC) recognized that expensive roaming fees that applied when operating across borders were impeding trade, communication and commerce between countries and decided to take action. The governments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda saw internal barriers to free-flowing communication as an obstacle to deepening the common market and pressured Safaricom, Airtel, MTN and others to accept a “One-Network-Area” agreement, which became operational in January. After reducing the tariffs for calling other national networks by more than 60 per cent, roaming traffic among the EAC member countries immediately reached staggering numbers. The Communications Authority of Kenya reported that since the One-Network-Area’s establishment, Kenya’s incoming roaming traffic from Rwanda increased by 951 per cent, and Kenya’s outbound roaming traffic increased by 254 per cent, meaning more revenues for the telecom operators. Last week’s Northern Corridor Summit in Nairobi expanded the One-Network-Area to include data, to deepen the impact.
Through political will, mutual cooperation and strong execution, East African countries have unleashed hidden value. Speaking of these efforts, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said: “We have found that we have the power to drive growth with what we already have on the ground in East Africa. The results not only help attract new investment partners, but more importantly provide the momentum required to tackle even bigger challenges together in the years ahead.”
Seeing the progress being made, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have joined the Northern Corridor Integration Project.
In the face of slowing external investment and the long-term timeframe of most infrastructure projects, short-term productivity gains can be unlocked by attacking economic inefficiencies with well thought-out and implemented collective solutions. If the rest of the continent follows East Africa’s example, either by initiative or by necessity, China’s slowdown could provide an opportunity to address longstanding issues that have been holding many African countries back from their full economic potential.