從你自己的宴會(huì)上撤走大酒杯無可厚非,。但是隔壁有錢人家在這十年的大部分時(shí)間里一直請(qǐng)所有街坊鄰居家的青少年喝酒,,如今終于決定不再這么做,這是不是也沒什么,?
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)將于本周舉行議息會(huì)議,,在保持利率不變近7年之后,他們可能會(huì)在此次會(huì)議上決定加息,,這自然引發(fā)了新興市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂,。在今年大宗商品價(jià)格和匯率下跌之前,新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)自全球金融危機(jī)以來的兩段重要插曲就是,,2013年中期和2014年初因美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)表露出可能退出貨幣刺激政策的意向而出現(xiàn)的兩次“削減恐慌”(taper tantrum),。
世界銀行(World Bank)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家考希克巴蘇(Kaushik Basu)上周加入了這個(gè)話題的討論,,他表示,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)過早加息可能會(huì)重創(chuàng)整個(gè)新興市場(chǎng),導(dǎo)致破壞穩(wěn)定的資本外流進(jìn)一步加劇,。那么似乎有些異常的是,,數(shù)位新興市場(chǎng)的政策制定者對(duì)美國(guó)可能會(huì)加息似乎滿不在乎。最近在懷俄明州的杰克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)舉行的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)年度會(huì)議上,,全球貨幣政策專家匯聚一堂的時(shí)候,,數(shù)位新興市場(chǎng)央行官員一齊表示,美國(guó)按原計(jì)劃盡早加息可能更好,。
值得注意的是,,其中最知名的一位是印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長(zhǎng)拉古拉姆拉詹(Raghuram Rajan),他向《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(the Wall Street Journal)表示,,在新興市場(chǎng)看來,,“早一點(diǎn)開始,,并在充分預(yù)熱的前提下緩慢加息”,可能好過遲些時(shí)候大幅加息,。去年年初,,拉詹打破了各央行行長(zhǎng)通常遵循的緘默原則(即對(duì)彼此的做法不做評(píng)論),明確對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)減慢其量化寬松項(xiàng)目下資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買速度的決定加以批評(píng),。
正如拉詹的言論所反映出的那樣,,新興市場(chǎng)央行之所以希望美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)盡快加息,在某種程度上只是出于戰(zhàn)術(shù)上的考量:要是干了以后就完了,,那么還是快一點(diǎn)干(引《麥克白》中名句——譯者注),。如果人們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)暫時(shí)不加息是因?yàn)閾?dān)心加息對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響,那么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)被迫與投資者玩起破壞穩(wěn)定的“懦夫博弈”,。
不過,,新興市場(chǎng)的這種態(tài)度,也反映出它們對(duì)鄰居中那些想得開的父母以及過去十年超低利率促使新興市場(chǎng)大舉借貸的不滿,。2010年至2011年,,指責(zé)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)際上在壓低美元匯率、打“匯率戰(zhàn)”的聲浪很高,,這股聲浪主要來自新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的財(cái)政部,,而非它們的央行。但毫無疑問的是,,當(dāng)時(shí)潮水般涌入這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的廉價(jià)資金推升了它們的本幣匯率,,加大了它們的貨幣政策制定者的工作難度。
在特定的某些國(guó)家——腦海里很快浮現(xiàn)的是巴西和土耳其——寬松資金讓政府更容易推行寬松財(cái)政政策,,從而加劇了本幣匯率的高估,,在調(diào)整的時(shí)候調(diào)整幅度也更大。更多的資本外流和信貸環(huán)境的收緊可能迫使國(guó)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)更多調(diào)整,,但調(diào)整遲早也都是會(huì)來的,。
面對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能加息、以及本國(guó)貨幣將進(jìn)一步被壓低,,各國(guó)央行表現(xiàn)出的不同底氣,,反映出它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和可信度。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息將加劇中國(guó)的資本外流問題:中國(guó)央行(PBoC)金融研究所的姚余棟認(rèn)為美國(guó)可能加息是造成中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的罪魁禍?zhǔn)?,并稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)推遲加息,。巴西和土耳其的央行已經(jīng)面臨一個(gè)艱難使命:在經(jīng)濟(jì)正在步入衰退之際收緊貨幣政策、擠掉通脹,。匯率進(jìn)一步下跌和資本進(jìn)一步外流,將讓它們的任務(wù)更加艱巨,,可能延長(zhǎng)它們保持從緊政策的時(shí)間,。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息可能會(huì)讓對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有直接敞口的新興國(guó)家不得不跟著加息,,但考慮到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在以足夠快的速度增長(zhǎng)、帶來的出口需求增加會(huì)抵消掉加息對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的緊縮效應(yīng),,這些新興國(guó)家仍對(duì)加息表示歡迎,。墨西哥央行行長(zhǎng)阿古斯丁慍斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens)表示,他希望美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息,,即便這樣的話他也得跟著加息,。
對(duì)于印度這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言,央行很有可能可以持續(xù)降息,,與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)保持步調(diào)相反,。印度是一個(gè)凈大宗商品進(jìn)口國(guó),通脹穩(wěn)定,,近期資金流出相對(duì)較少,。自2013年9月上任以來,拉詹采取了很多措施,,以控制通脹并向印度貨幣政策注入可信度,,這無疑解釋了他為何對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能加息改變了態(tài)度。
中歐和東歐,,或者至少更接近西方國(guó)家的凈大宗商品進(jìn)口國(guó),,也相對(duì)不那么擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息。波蘭自3月降息以來,,利率一直維持在1.5%,,最近大宗商品價(jià)格下跌意味著,該國(guó)央行或許能夠在更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)保持利率不變,,而且它必須迅速對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息作出反應(yīng)的可能性極低,。
圍繞美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的恐慌無疑在一定程度上源于歷史,至少對(duì)于那些記性比較好的國(guó)家而言是這樣,。從1994年開始,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持續(xù)加息,除了造成國(guó)債市場(chǎng)著名的暴跌之外,,還給一些新興國(guó)家?guī)砹私詠碜钤愀獾慕?jīng)歷,,并在3年后引發(fā)亞洲和俄羅斯金融危機(jī)。但這些屬于盯住美元的匯率制度的危機(jī),,美國(guó)的貨幣政策當(dāng)時(shí)更直接地輸入到了這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。
如今,盡管一些新興市場(chǎng)的私營(yíng)部門借入了大量美元債務(wù),,但政府的美元敞口遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于以前,。自2013年和2014年的“削減恐慌”以來,許多新興市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字也縮小了不少,。
美國(guó)下月可能加息,,這不會(huì)讓任何人歡喜,,但很多新興國(guó)家央行行長(zhǎng)聽上去要比這些國(guó)家的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)自信得多,同時(shí)心態(tài)也比之前輕松,。宴席總有散的時(shí)候:那些飲食相對(duì)節(jié)制的小賓客的父母?jìng)?,更有可能冷靜地面對(duì)孩子們第二天的宿醉。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
It’s all very well removing the punchbowl from your own party. But what about when the rich family next door have been supplying liquor to the neighbourhood’s teenagers for the best part of a decade and eventually decide to stop?
The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, at which it may raise interest rates after leaving them on hold for nearly seven years, has naturally raised concern among emerging markets. Before this year’s falls in commodity prices and currencies, the two defining episodes in EM assets since the global financial crisis have been the taper tantrums of mid-2013 and early 2014 at the very prospect of the Fed removing monetary stimulus.
This week the World Bank’s chief economist, Kaushik Basu, weighed in on the subject, saying that a premature Fed rate rise could wreak havoc across emerging markets, leading to further destabilising capital outflows. It may seem unusual, then, that several EM policymakers themselves seem quite relaxed at the prospect. At the corroboree of monetary policy experts at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, recently, several EM central bankers lined up to say that the US might actually be better getting on and raising rates sooner rather than later.
It was notable that one of the most prominent was Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, who told the Wall Street Journal that, from an emerging market perspective, it might be preferable to have “a move early on and an advertised, slow move up” than an abrupt tightening later. Early last year, Mr Rajan broke the usual central bankers’ omertàabout each other’s actions by explicitly criticising the Fed’s decision to start slowing its asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme.
To some extent, as in Mr Rajan’s comments, the EM central bank enthusiasm for a Fed increase simply reflects tactical considerations: if it were done when ’tis done, ’twere well it were done quickly. If the Fed is seen to be holding off because of fear of the market impact, the US central bank could get into a destabilising game of chicken with investors.
But it also reflects irritation with those liberally minded parents down the road and the effect of super-low interest rates on encouraging EM borrowing over the past decade. The flood of “currency war” accusations in 2010-11 that the Fed was in effect driving down the dollar mainly came from finance ministries rather than central banks. But there is no doubt that a flood of cheap money into their economies that drove up their exchange rates made their task as monetary policymakers more difficult.
In certain countries — Brazil and Turkey leap to mind — easy money made it simpler for governments to run loose fiscal policy, thus worsening the exchange rate overvaluations and the size of corrections when they came. More capital outflows and tighter credit conditions may force more domestic adjustment, but adjustment had to come at some stage.
The varying confidence with which central banks face a Fed rate rise — and the prospect that it will push their currencies down further — reflects their economic positioning and credibility. For China, it will exacerbate their problems of capital outflow: Yao Yudong of the People’s Bank of China’s research institution blamed the prospect of a Fed increase for turmoil in Chinese financial markets and said a rate rise should be delayed. Central banks in Brazil and Turkey have already faced the unenviable task of tightening policy to squeeze inflation out of economies heading into recession. More falls in exchange rates and capital outflows will make their task yet harder and are likely to keep domestic policy tighter for longer.
EMs with direct exposure to the US economy may have to raise rates in response to a Fed rise but still welcome it, assuming it means that the US is growing sufficiently quickly to offset the contractionary impact with an expansion in export demand. Agustín Carstens, governor of the Mexican central bank, has said that he would like a tightening even if he had to follow suit.
For economies such as India, a net commodity importer with stable inflation and relatively little recent capital outflow, the central bank will most likely be able to keep cutting interest rates, moving in a different direction to the Fed. Mr Rajan has done a lot to get on top of inflation and instil credibility in India’s monetary policy since his appointment in September 2013, which no doubt explains his changed attitude to the prospect of a Fed tightening.
Central and eastern Europe, or at least the more westerly net commodity importers, also have relatively little to fear from a Fed rate rise. In Poland, wher interest rates have been at 1.5 per cent since they were cut in March, the recent falls in commodity prices mean the central bank may be able to leave rates on hold for longer, and is very unlikely to have to react quickly to a move by the Fed.
The horror about a Fed tightening no doubt owes something to history, at least for those with long memories. The sustained rise in US interest rates that began in 1994, apart from causing the famed bloodbath in the Treasury market, also led to some of the worst EM experiences in modern times, sparking the Asian and Russian financial crisis three years later. But those were crises of dollar-pegged exchange rates, wher US monetary policy was much more directly imported into the economies concerned.
Although the private sector has borrowed heavily in dollars in some EMs, governments are currently much less exposed than in earlier eras. Current account deficits have also come down considerably in many EMs since the taper tantrums of 2013 and 2014.
The prospect of higher US interest rates next month will not be filling anyone with glee, but many EM central bankers are sounding much more confident than their finance ministry counterparts and more relaxed than they were before. All parties have to end at some point: the parents of those guests who were relatively abstemious are more likely to face their ensuing hangovers with equanimity.