
對(duì)于能促進(jìn)2015年經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的快速政策改革,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析人士目前關(guān)注七個(gè)領(lǐng)域,。今年這些領(lǐng)域很有可能助推世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。
內(nèi)需活躍。前摩根士丹利首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬·羅奇稱(chēng):“2015,,中國(guó)能抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)減速所產(chǎn)生的不利影響,,同時(shí)不會(huì)造成可怕的硬著陸。內(nèi)需將以前所未有的方式活躍起來(lái),。”
石油順勢(shì),。高盛集團(tuán)前亞洲區(qū)副主席肯尼斯·柯蒂斯認(rèn)為,石油和其他大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌使中國(guó)成為“大贏家”,。中國(guó)可以省下買(mǎi)石油,、煤炭和天然氣的錢(qián),便宜地增加戰(zhàn)略能源儲(chǔ)備,。
能源市場(chǎng)變化,。美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所學(xué)者史劍道表示,,油價(jià)沖擊也為能源市場(chǎng)化改革提供了“絕佳契機(jī)”。中國(guó)可能會(huì)采取措施,,通過(guò)減少或取消補(bǔ)貼的方式,,提高能源行業(yè)的效率。
戶(hù)籍改革,。蘇格蘭皇家銀行中國(guó)區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高路易說(shuō),,中小城鎮(zhèn)戶(hù)籍制度的放開(kāi)和福利改革有助于降低預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄,并刺激消費(fèi),。
私有化浪潮,。德意志銀行稱(chēng),地方政府尋求卸下資產(chǎn),,這可能會(huì)掀起一輪私有化。該銀行駐香港經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家張智威和奧德蕾·史(音)稱(chēng):“這應(yīng)該有助于促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)力,,改善增長(zhǎng)前景,。”
外部環(huán)境有利。高盛集團(tuán)稱(chēng),,中國(guó)想要引入市場(chǎng)化改革,,2015年會(huì)有更有利的環(huán)境,因?yàn)榘l(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)廣泛復(fù)蘇會(huì)促進(jìn)出口,。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
Economists and analysts currently focus on seven areas with regard to the factors that can promote economic restructuring policy reforms. This year these areas are likely to boost the world's second largest economy.
Active domestic demand. Stephen Roach, former chief economist from Morgan Stanley said, in 2015, China could inhibit the adverse effects arising from the economic slowdown, not causing a terrible hard landing, because domestic demand would be active in an unprecedented way.."
Homeopathic oil price trend. Former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia Kenneth Curtis believed that oil and other commodity prices slump made China a "big winner". China could procure oil, coal and gas at a lower price and increase strategic energy reserves easily.
Energy market changes. Derek Scissors, a scholar at American Enterprise Institute said the oil price trend also provided a "great opportunity" in the process of energy market reform. China might take measures to reduce or eliminate subsidies and improve the efficiency of the energy industry.
Census register reform. Luis Kuijs, Chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said that welfare reform and the liberalization of small towns census registration system could help reduce precautionary savings and stimulate consumption.
Privatization wave. Deutsche Bank said the local government sought to remove the assets, which could set off a privatization. Zhang Zhiwei and Audrey, Hong Kong-based economists of the bank said, this should help boost productivity and improve growth prospects."
Advantageously external environment. Goldman Sachs said that China wanted to introduce market-oriented reforms, in 2015 there would be a more favorable environment in 2015, because the recovery of extensively developed economies would promote exports.