華盛頓——隨著各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人發(fā)出世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩的警告，在上周的國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund,，簡(jiǎn)稱IMF）秋季年會(huì)上,，有一個(gè)更為緊迫的擔(dān)憂點(diǎn)吸引了決策者們的注意力：日益膨脹的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格，以及不斷攀升的海外負(fù)債水平,。
歐元區(qū)債券市場(chǎng)一片活躍,，中國(guó)的負(fù)債水平創(chuàng)下歷史新高，而美國(guó)的股市盡管上周遭受重創(chuàng),，總體而言仍處于大牛市中,。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和政界人士對(duì)世界范圍內(nèi)的央行大力施壓，希望它們繼續(xù)乃至升級(jí)當(dāng)前極為寬松的貨幣政策,，以便刺激全球需求,。然而，與此同時(shí),，這些措施或?qū)⒁l(fā)又一輪市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的擔(dān)憂正在蔓延,。
“上次危機(jī)的一大教訓(xùn)就是，寬松的貨幣政策會(huì)助長(zhǎng)金融過(guò)剩,，”曾擔(dān)任歐洲央行（European Central Bank,，簡(jiǎn)稱ECB）副行長(zhǎng)的盧卡斯·帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)說(shuō)。“我們目前有很好的理由來(lái)追求類似的政策,。但凡事有極限——假如持續(xù)時(shí)間太長(zhǎng),，金融市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就會(huì)冒出來(lái),。”
上周的時(shí)候，有關(guān)這一問(wèn)題的辯論在華盛頓展開：不僅出現(xiàn)在智庫(kù)的討論會(huì)上,、在恢弘的IMF大樓內(nèi)外舉辦的會(huì)議里,，還出現(xiàn)在各國(guó)政府官員與央行高層的正式對(duì)話中。
周六,，ECB行長(zhǎng)馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)附和了這種擔(dān)憂,。他表示，除了全球經(jīng)濟(jì),，討論的一大主題是投資者“承擔(dān)的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日趨擴(kuò)大”,，尤其是非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)。
在某種程度上,，IMF對(duì)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)——尤其是德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)——或許會(huì)陷入衰退的警告,，將之前的學(xué)術(shù)討論變成了一大政治議題。
德國(guó)已超越中國(guó)成為全球第一大貿(mào)易順差國(guó),。呼吁德國(guó)加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資以重振其放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)的聲音頗為響亮,。不過(guò)，在緊閉的大門背后,，有更大的推動(dòng)力要求盡快行動(dòng)：歐洲央行應(yīng)買入意大利,、西班牙和希臘的國(guó)債，而且是大量買入,。
盡管ECB提交了一份計(jì)劃,，準(zhǔn)備購(gòu)買證券化的企業(yè)債券，但許多人現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為,，此類證券當(dāng)前的規(guī)模不足以讓這一計(jì)劃起到作用,。
在鷹派央行行長(zhǎng)延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)的帶領(lǐng)下，德國(guó)一直對(duì)ECB大量買入成員國(guó)國(guó)債的任何舉措予以抵制,。
一名無(wú)權(quán)公開置評(píng)的ECB高級(jí)官員稱,，在該行的管理委員會(huì)上，德國(guó)面臨著放松其反對(duì)立場(chǎng)的越來(lái)越大的壓力,，尤其是在有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹的擔(dān)憂正在加深的情況下,。
“我想這件事一年內(nèi)會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)，”此人表示,。
當(dāng)然,，這樣的舉措將導(dǎo)致全球買家更為瘋狂地購(gòu)入歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的國(guó)債。而且,，本周早些時(shí)候，IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告,，此類工具的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)沒有得到這些國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)面的支持,。
實(shí)際上,，盡管債市投資者在猛踩油門，但受困于嚴(yán)苛監(jiān)管要求的銀行,，仍然在踩剎車,。
“每六個(gè)月就得來(lái)一次壓力測(cè)試，我怎么可能去放貸,？”歐洲一家大型銀行的董事長(zhǎng)說(shuō),。由于不希望惹惱自己的新監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)ECB，他要求不具名,。
上周,，IMF表示，該機(jī)構(gòu)監(jiān)測(cè)的歐洲大型銀行中,，70%無(wú)法通過(guò)放貸來(lái)支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,。
“我們看到的是，金融市場(chǎng)中的很多業(yè)務(wù)承載著巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，而實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)在承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的事情上打著瞌睡,，”國(guó)際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師克勞迪奧·博里奧(Claudio Borio)說(shuō)。這家銀行是全球央行的結(jié)算行,。
德拉吉在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,，他并未看到歐元區(qū)存在國(guó)債泡沫的跡象，不過(guò)他明確指出,，需要密切關(guān)注這一問(wèn)題,。
尤其是，銀行業(yè)高層和債務(wù)專家指出,，由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃,，新興市場(chǎng)上累積了巨額的企業(yè)與私營(yíng)部門債務(wù)。
“整體債務(wù)規(guī)模持續(xù)飆升——在過(guò)去六年里,，中國(guó)的債務(wù)增加了15萬(wàn)億美元（約合92萬(wàn)億元人民幣）,，”咨詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)的分析師蘇珊·倫德(Susan Lund)說(shuō)。“這是個(gè)很大的數(shù)字,。”
在上周發(fā)布的《全球金融穩(wěn)定報(bào)告》中,，IMF指出，資產(chǎn)管理公司增加了從新興市場(chǎng)上買入債券的規(guī)模,，由2000年初的2650億美元增至目前的近2萬(wàn)億美元,。
過(guò)去幾年間，這種累積的步伐不斷加快,，而監(jiān)管部門擔(dān)心,，當(dāng)美國(guó)加息的時(shí)候，投資者將紛紛抽離資金,，尤其是散戶投資者,。
專家認(rèn)為,，到了那個(gè)時(shí)候，各大基金將難以將這些證券脫手,，因?yàn)樗鼈儾淮竽芪罅康馁I家和賣家,。
“我們的確擔(dān)心，如果其中的大筆資金要同時(shí)退出,，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)減價(jià)大甩賣,，”英格蘭銀行(Bank of England)負(fù)責(zé)金融穩(wěn)定的副行長(zhǎng)喬恩·坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)說(shuō)。
不過(guò),，在一些觀察人士看來(lái),，關(guān)于資產(chǎn)泡沫及各國(guó)央行應(yīng)如何加以應(yīng)對(duì)的討論，其實(shí)是不得要領(lǐng),。他們宣稱,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的話——由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在全面復(fù)蘇，可以這樣設(shè)想——將是一個(gè)積極的信號(hào),，不僅對(duì)美國(guó)如此,，對(duì)全球金融市場(chǎng)總體而言也如此。
“2015年將會(huì)加息——為什么市場(chǎng)要?jiǎng)×也▌?dòng),？”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·P·戈?duì)柭?James P. Gorman)在周五的午餐會(huì)上反問(wèn),。“之所以會(huì)加息，是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在好轉(zhuǎn)——這是件好事,。”(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）


WASHINGTON — As global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund’s semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas.

Bond markets in the eurozone are booming, debt in China is at historic highs and the United States stock market, even with its sharp fall last week, has been on a tear.

As economists and politicians heap pressure on global central banks to continue, and even escalate, their unusually loose monetary policies in order to spur global demand, the fear that these measures could provoke another market convulsion is spreading.
“A major lesson of the last crisis is that accommodative monetary policy contributed to financial excesses,” said Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank. “We are pursuing a similar policy for good reason. But there are limits — if you do this for too long, risks in the financial markets will materialize.”
Over the last week this debate has been playing out here: on panels at think tanks, in huddles inside and outside the hulking I.M.F. building and in formal talks between government officials and central bankers.
Mario Draghi, the president of the E.C.B., echoed these concerns on Saturday when he said that beyond concerns about the global economy, one of the main topics of discussion was “increasing financial risk-taking” by investors, especially nonbank institutions.
To a degree, the fund’s warning that the eurozone’s economy, and Germany’s in particular, might face a recession turned what had been an academic discussion into a major political issue.
The outcry for Germany, which has surpassed China as the country with the largest trade surplus in the world, to spend more on infrastructure to revitalize its flagging economy was loud enough. But behind closed doors there was an even harder push for more immediate action: a purchase by the European Central Bank of Italian, Spanish and Greek government bonds, in large quantities.
While the bank has presented a plan to purchase securitized corporate bonds, many now think that not enough of these securities exist for the plan to make a difference.
Germany, led by its hawkish central bank head, Jens Weidmann, has resisted all moves by the E.C.B. to buy government bonds in bulk.
One senior E.C.B. official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that within the body’s governing council, Germany is facing increased pressure to relax its opposition to such measures, especially as worries about growth and deflation increase.
“I think you will see this happen in less than a year,” the person said.
Such a step, of course, would create even more of a global buying frenzy for eurozone government bonds, and earlier in the week Christine Lagarde, the chief of the I.M.F., warned that the strong performance of these instruments was not supported by the underlying economies in their countries.
In effect, bond market investors are slamming down on the gas pedal while banks, burdened by persistent regulatory demands, still have their foot on the brake.
“How am I supposed to lend any money if I have to go through a stress test every six months?” said the chairman of a large European bank who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to offend his new regulator, the E.C.B.
Last week, the I.M.F. said that in Europe, 70 percent of the large banks it monitored were not in a position to support an economic recovery via increased lending.
“What we see is extraordinary risk-taking in the financial markets while in the real economy risk-taking has taken a holiday,” said Claudio Borio, a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements, a clearinghouse for global central banks.
Mr. Draghi, at his news conference, said he did not see signs of a government-bond bubble in the eurozone, although he did note that the matter demanded close attention.
In particular, bankers and debt experts pointed to the tremendous buildup in corporate and private-sector debt in emerging markets that has resulted from the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.
“Overall debt has continued to grow quite dramatically — China’s has grown by $15 trillion in the past six years,” said Susan Lund, an analyst at McKinsey, the consulting firm. “That is a very large number.”
In the financial stability report it released last week, the I.M.F. pointed out that asset management firms have increased their purchases of bonds from emerging markets to close to $2 trillion today from $265 billion in early 2000.
The pace of this buildup has increased over the last few years, and regulators worry that when interest rates in the United States rise, investors — especially on the retail side — will pull their money out.
At that point, experts believe, the funds would have a hard time selling those securities, which tend to not attract large numbers of buyers and sellers.
“We do worry that if a lot of this money heads for the exit at the same time you could see a major fire sale,” said Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England.
For some observers, though, the debate about asset bubbles and what central banks should do about them misses a crucial point. An increase in interest rates by the Fed, assuming it happened because the American economy was in full recovery mode, would be a positive sign, they say — not just for the United States but also for global financial markets in general.
“Interest rates are going to go up in 2015 — why are the markets getting all whipsawed?” said James P. Gorman, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, speaking at a luncheon conference on Friday. “Rates are going up because the U.S. economy is doing better — and that is a good thing.”