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商業(yè)能力緊隨經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力,。1920年代，英國(guó)公司擁有 40%的全球海外直接投資股票,。截至1967年,，美國(guó)以50%的市場(chǎng)份額雄霸世界。這些數(shù)字的背后是文化革命,。英國(guó)將電報(bào)機(jī)和鐵路傳至拉丁美洲。美國(guó)公司則通過(guò)好萊塢和廣告營(yíng)造了一副美好生活的憧憬,。家樂(lè)氏公司改變了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家人們桌上的早餐,，柯達(dá)則定格了人們對(duì)于假期的美好回憶。下一場(chǎng)公司革命,，就如同我們?cè)诒局艿奶貏e報(bào)道中描述的一樣,，將發(fā)生在亞洲。這也同樣會(huì)改變我們生活的世界,。
亞洲資本強(qiáng)勁有力,。亞洲大陸占全球GDP的份額自 1984年以來(lái)已經(jīng)增長(zhǎng)了五分之一，至28%,。 這里是世界工廠,，由供應(yīng)鏈連結(jié)起來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)多元化的地區(qū)。但是它“力大無(wú)腦”,，缺乏對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)悟能力,。亞洲熔煉了76%的世界鋼鐵并排放了44%的污染物，但是只掌握了十分之一最有價(jià)值的品牌和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本活動(dòng),。這里,，跨國(guó)公司的實(shí)力與其規(guī)模并不相稱，只擁有世界17%的外國(guó)直接投資,。富裕的日本和韓國(guó)有眾多的明星企業(yè),，例如豐田和三星。但是,，其他能夠在世界舞臺(tái)上占領(lǐng)一席之地的公司卻是屈指可數(shù),。
這是因?yàn)閬喼薜馁Y本主義是“溫室里的花朵”。從 2002到2010年,，唾手可得的利潤(rùn)在家里就能輕松賺到——快速的增長(zhǎng)以及廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力和信貸,。三分之二的亞洲大公司都是國(guó)有的或者家族式經(jīng)營(yíng)的商號(hào)。它們都與政府有著密切的關(guān)系,，能夠得到廉價(jià)的土地和貸款,。亞洲近半數(shù)的億萬(wàn)富豪都是從政府有關(guān)部門發(fā)家的，例如極易產(chǎn)生裙帶關(guān)系的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，相比之下在西方只占15%,。除了日本,、臺(tái)灣和南韓之外，創(chuàng)新都遭到了忽視,。馬恒達(dá)和長(zhǎng)城這兩個(gè)印度和中國(guó)的汽車業(yè)龍頭,，其研究開(kāi)發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)加起來(lái)也不過(guò)是大眾汽車的3%。
對(duì)于西方公司來(lái)說(shuō),，亞洲的短板令他們從中得利,。 iPhone就是很好的例子：盡管都是出自中國(guó)工人的雙手，但從中賺取幾乎全部利潤(rùn)的“大腦”,，是背后的蘋果公司和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的高科技元件市場(chǎng),。然而，這個(gè)曾經(jīng)在過(guò)去二十年里管理著亞洲資本的游戲規(guī)則正在改變,。亞洲企業(yè)正在變成更為靈活和全球化的“大腦”,。
亞洲企業(yè)的本土市場(chǎng)不再是高枕無(wú)憂，所以他們也在適應(yīng)——同時(shí)也在變強(qiáng),。由于上升的工資成本,，產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)（例如服裝）正在從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)到東南亞和非洲，日本公司由于擔(dān)心與中國(guó)將爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)所以首先采取了這種措施,。中國(guó)公司例如生產(chǎn)冰箱的海爾,，計(jì)劃加強(qiáng)工廠自動(dòng)化并生產(chǎn)更智能的產(chǎn)品。隨著中國(guó)高端市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展,，韓國(guó)正竭力保持其領(lǐng)先地位,。三星在2013年的研發(fā)經(jīng) 費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)了24%。如果印度和印尼能共同進(jìn)退,，這兩個(gè)笨手笨腳的亞洲巨人將會(huì)吸引大量的工廠就業(yè),。他們中最好的公司也正變成“大腦”。曾經(jīng)被忽略為代工車間 的印度IT外包公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為大數(shù)據(jù)的領(lǐng)軍者,。
消費(fèi)者日益增長(zhǎng)的需求意愿正幫助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)打破行業(yè)傳統(tǒng),。阿里巴巴作為一個(gè)中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)巨頭，已經(jīng)將業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張到銀行業(yè),、電信業(yè)和物流業(yè),。分析師認(rèn)為其市值可能達(dá)到1500億美元，超過(guò)了中國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)總和,。中國(guó)實(shí)施國(guó)企改革的決心意味著國(guó)企要更多的回應(yīng)消費(fèi)者的需求,。中國(guó)移動(dòng)董事長(zhǎng)奚國(guó)華計(jì)劃讓自己的員工持有本企業(yè)的股份?？v觀亞洲,，對(duì)于醫(yī)療保健的需求很有可能會(huì)創(chuàng)造一批全新的公司——該行業(yè)的份額只占地區(qū)股票市場(chǎng)的4%，而在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家則占12%。
為了應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,，亞洲公司（例如三星和豐田）正在全球化,。作為一家繁榮興旺的中國(guó)計(jì)算機(jī)企業(yè)，聯(lián)想擁有西式的管理和眾多外籍員工,。華為在電信設(shè)備方面也超越了愛(ài)立信公司,。印度的太陽(yáng)藥業(yè)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng) 躋身為全球最大的非注冊(cè)商標(biāo)類藥品公司之一。騰訊是中國(guó)版的facebook,，聘任足球明星萊昂內(nèi)爾·梅西為其服務(wù)進(jìn)行海外宣傳,。粗放式發(fā)展的商業(yè)模式已 經(jīng)進(jìn)化成集中而專業(yè)的跨國(guó)企業(yè)。塔塔之子公司這家優(yōu)秀的IT公司和豪華汽車制造商,，已經(jīng)成為印度資產(chǎn)大雜燴中的一員,。
不過(guò)，亞洲商業(yè)前路依然漫長(zhǎng),。跟5年前相比,，大公司的研發(fā)開(kāi)支增加了50%,，但仍需突破性的創(chuàng)新,。企業(yè)集團(tuán)需要集中優(yōu)勢(shì)到某一些領(lǐng)域并做大到國(guó)際規(guī)模。政府能幫忙的地方就是解放國(guó)企,、停止插手并確保大權(quán)在握的現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)不會(huì)扼殺企業(yè)的發(fā)展,。
西方企業(yè)需要注意。某些行業(yè)（例如航空制造業(yè)）的準(zhǔn)入門檻仍然很高,，但在其他領(lǐng)域,，品牌和科技不再是阻擋新興亞洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的避風(fēng)港。西方國(guó)家低收入工作所面臨的威脅可能會(huì)減少,。海爾中國(guó)工人的收入是美國(guó)工人的25%,，自2000年以來(lái)增加了5%。相反的,，廣告文案,、科學(xué)家和設(shè)計(jì)師這些人更有可能需要面對(duì)來(lái)自來(lái)亞洲的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
歷史證明,，消費(fèi)者需要迅速適應(yīng)新情況,。在未來(lái)20 年，治愈老人的醫(yī)療奇跡將發(fā)生在日本,，最好的網(wǎng)絡(luò)應(yīng)用程序來(lái)自印度,，而高級(jí)時(shí)裝則來(lái)自中國(guó)。玉米片這個(gè)一度被認(rèn)為是高科技的食品,，將被裝在盒子里,、貼著全球品牌的稀飯和印度薄餅所取代。亞洲資本將改變世界。
Asian business is reforming. Its emerging multinationals will change the way we all live.
Business power follows economic power. In the 1920s British firms owned 40% of the global stock of foreign direct investment. By 1967 America was top dog, with a 50% share. Behind those figures lie cultural revolutions. The British spread the telegraph and trains in Latin America. American firms sold a vision of the good life, honed by Hollywood and advertising. Kellogg's changed what the rich world ate for breakfast, and Kodak how it remembered holidays. The next corporate revolution, as we describe in our special report this week, is happening in Asia. This too will change how the world lives.
Asian capitalism has brawn. The continent's share of global GDP has risen from a fifth to 28% since 1984. It is the world's factory, a diverse region of rivals bound together by supply chains. But it lacks brains and global savvy. Asia smelts 76% of the world's iron and emits 44% of its pollution, but hosts only a tenth of its most valuable brands and venture-capital activity. Its multinationals punch below their weight, owning 17% of the world's foreign direct investment. Wealthy Japan and South Korea have a cast of superstars, such as Toyota and Samsung. But few other firms command the world stage.
That is because Asian capitalism has been too cosy. In the boom between 2002 and 2010 easy profits were made at home—growth was fast and labour and credit cheap. Two-thirds of big Asian firms are state-controlled or “business houses” (often family-run). These incumbents tend to be chummy with the government and get cheap land and loans. Half of all billionaire wealth in Asia has been made in sectors, such as property, that are prone to cronyism, versus 15% in the West. Outside Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, innovation has been neglected. Mahindra & Mahindra and Great Wall, car champions from India and China, have a combined research-and-development (R&D) budget that is 3% of Volkswagen's.
For Western firms, Asia's shortcomings have been a relief. The iPhone shows why: although it is made by the hands of Chinese workers, it is the brains behind it, at Apple and at high-tech component-makers in the rich world, that take nearly all the profits. Now, however, the rules that have governed Asian capitalism for the past two decades are changing. Asian firms are having to become brainier, more nimble and more global.
With their home markets no longer quite so safe, Asian firms are adapting—and becoming stronger. In response to rising wages, production (of clothes, for example) is shifting from China to South-East Asia and Africa, led by Japanese firms which are also worried about a war with the Middle Kingdom. Chinese firms such as Haier, which makes fridges, plan to automate factories and get into cleverer products. And as the Chinese push upmarket, the Koreans are redoubling efforts to stay ahead. Samsung's spending on R&D rose by 24% in 2013. If they get their act together, India and Indonesia, Asia's bumbling giants, will attract lots of factory jobs. Their best firms are also getting brainier. Once dismissed as “body shops”, India's IT-outsourcing firms are now leaders in big data.
Rising consumer aspirations are helping internet firms disrupt traditional industries. Alibaba, a Chinese internet giant, is expanding into banking, telecoms and logistics. Analysts think it might be worth $150 billion, more than China's steel industry. China's drive to reform its state-owned firms is meant to make them more responsive to customers. Xi Guohua, the boss of China Mobile, plans to give shares to his staff. Across Asia demand for health care is likely to create a whole new generation of companies—the industry comprises only 4% of the region's stockmarket, compared with 12% in the rich world.
In order to challenge foreign rivals, Asian firms are globalising, following the example of Samsung and Toyota. Lenovo, a thriving Chinese computer firm, has Western-style governance and many foreign staff. Huawei has overtaken Ericsson in telecoms equipment. India's Sun Pharma is now one of the world's biggest generic-drugs firms. Tencent, China's Facebook, has hired the footballer Lionel Messi to advertise its services abroad. Sprawling business houses are evolving into focused multinationals. Tata Sons is now a superb IT firm and luxury-car maker tied to a ragbag of Indian assets.
However,，Asian business needs to do much more. Big firms are spending 50% more on R&D than five years ago, but must get better at breakthrough innovations. Conglomerates must focus on a few areas wher they can achieve global scale. Governments can do their bit, by freeing state firms from meddling and ensuring that powerful incumbents do not stifle entrepreneurs.
Western firms should pay attention. In some industries—aircraft manufacturing, for example—the barriers to entry are still immense, but in other sectors brands and technology will no longer be a shield from emerging Asian competition. The threat to low-paid Western jobs may recede. Haier's Chinese workers are paid 25% of what its American workers get, up from 5% in 2000. Instead it may be copywriters, scientists and designers who feel the chill of competition from the East.
History suggests consumers will adapt fast. In 20 years, miracle cures for the old will come from Japan, the best web apps from India and couture from China. And cornflakes, once a cutting-edge food, will be rivalled by congee and dosas, sold in boxes by a global brand. Asian capitalism will change the world.
