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據(jù)官方的新華社昨日報(bào)道，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃者承諾在新的一年里采取更加“積極”和“靈活”的財(cái)政和貨幣政策,。中國看來將取得25年來最慢的年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率,。
一名熟悉規(guī)劃事務(wù)的政策官員表示，政府將實(shí)行更加“寬松”的財(cái)政和貨幣政策,，同時(shí)減少剩余產(chǎn)能,，為企業(yè)降低成本，出售積壓的房地產(chǎn)和工業(yè)產(chǎn)品庫存。
“將會(huì)有擴(kuò)大政府開支和增加政府財(cái)政赤字的財(cái)政政策,，”這位官員表示,。他補(bǔ)充說，經(jīng)濟(jì)“保持‘L’型態(tài)勢,；不會(huì)是V型”,。
中國今年竭力要實(shí)現(xiàn)“7%左右”的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長目標(biāo)，官方最近表示,，預(yù)計(jì)未來五年年均增長率將下滑至6.5%,。
政府在一年一度的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議在北京結(jié)束后發(fā)表聲明稱：“積極的財(cái)政政策需要更加有力，財(cái)政赤字需要逐步提高,。”
然而,，以“供應(yīng)側(cè)”改革為焦點(diǎn)的規(guī)劃，可能受到外國投資者的質(zhì)疑,，他們抱怨稱,，兩年前承諾的大膽改革至今未能兌現(xiàn)。
雖然中國的總債務(wù)與GDP之比近年飆升至250%以上（主要是由于企業(yè)部門的杠桿率過高）,，但中央和地方政府可以增加借款以支持經(jīng)濟(jì),。
前些年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，地方政府通過專門設(shè)立的融資工具借款,，然后大舉投資于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和房地產(chǎn),。
“（中央政府）將有更大的財(cái)政赤字，并允許地方政府發(fā)行更多債券,，”龍洲經(jīng)訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳龍表示,。“與此同時(shí)，地方政府融資工具將獲準(zhǔn)開足馬力借款,。”
中國官員辯稱,，即使傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎（如房地產(chǎn)和基建投資）失去動(dòng)力，消費(fèi)也將彌補(bǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的松弛,。
但他們承認(rèn),，許多需求最大的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)（特別是在教育和醫(yī)療保健領(lǐng)域）供不應(yīng)求，這意味著需要推行“供應(yīng)側(cè)”改革,。
“經(jīng)濟(jì)中有很多尚未滿足的需求,，”上述官員說。“我們并非面臨需求不足,。”
就像羅納德里根(Ronald Reagan)和瑪格麗特鈠切爾(Margaret Thatcher)30年前在美國和英國推行的“供應(yīng)側(cè)”改革那樣,，中國官員承諾削減繁文縟節(jié)和降低行政稅費(fèi)。許多在中國從事制造的企業(yè)提出,，在某些地區(qū),，他們面臨的成本與在美國和歐洲的同行不相上下,，如果不是更高的話。
然而,，中國政府并未真正擁抱私有化,，近期出臺的國企改革方案專注于重組現(xiàn)有的國有企業(yè)。（中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
China’s economic planners pledged to adopt more “proactive” and “flexible” fiscal and monetary policies in the new year, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday, as the country looks poised to post its slowest annual economic growth rate in 25 years.
The government will embrace more “accommodative” fiscal and monetary policies, said a policy official familiar with the planning, while reducing surplus production capacity, lowering costs for businesses and selling off stockpiles of properties and industrial goods.
“There will be fiscal policy to expand government spending and increase the government’s deficit,” the official said, adding that the economy “will follow an L-shaped path; it won’t be V-shaped”.
China has struggled to reach its GDP growth target of “around 7 per cent” and recently said that it expected average annual growth to slip to 6.5 per cent over the next five years.
In a statement at the end of Beijing’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, the government said that “China’s current proactive fiscal policy needs to be more forceful, and the fiscal deficit ratio needs to be raised gradually.”
However, the planning, which focused on “supply side” reforms, may be met with scepticism by foreign investors who have complained that bold reforms promised two years ago have yet to materialise.
While China’s overall debt-to-GDP level has soared past 250 per cent in recent years, largely due to excessive leverage in the corporate sector, the central government and local administrations can increase their borrowing to support the economy.
After the financial crisis, local governments borrowed through specially created finance vehicles that invested heavily in infrastructure and property.
“The [central government] will have larger fiscal deficits and allow local governments to issue more bonds,” said Chen Long, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Meanwhile, local government finance vehicles will be allowed to borrow at full speed.”
Chinese officials have argued that even as traditional economic engines such as property and infrastructure investment lose steam, consumption will make up for the reduced slack in the economy.
However, they admit that many of the most demanded products and services, especially in education and healthcare, are in short supply, leading to a need for “supply side” reforms.
“There are a lot of unmet demands in the economy,” the official said. “We are not facing a lack of demand.”
Like the “supply side” reforms by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the US and UK 30 years ago, Chinese officials have promised to cut red tape and lower administrative taxes. Many China-based manufacturers argue that in some areas they face costs comparable to, if not higher than, those in the US and Europe.
The Chinese government has, however, stopped short of embracing privatisation, with recent state sector reforms instead focused on reorganising existing state-owned enterprises.
