本周公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,第三季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出同比增長(zhǎng)6.9%,這是自全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最緩慢的增長(zhǎng),。
但是,在低迷的數(shù)字背后,中國(guó)的消費(fèi)者支出日益增長(zhǎng),,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)看起來(lái)很健康(見(jiàn)下面兩個(gè)圖表),這使得中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的某些行業(yè)潛在地具有投資吸引力,。
5年前,,由于政府通過(guò)舉債大力興建鐵路、公路和橋梁,,允許大量信貸在房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)滋生泡沫,,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速達(dá)到了兩位數(shù)。
盡管刺激性投資已經(jīng)放緩,,中國(guó)的零售商,、旅行和旅游組織以及客運(yùn)公司——它們屬于所謂的服務(wù)業(yè)——仍然運(yùn)行良好。第三季度,,服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)值同比增長(zhǎng)8.6%,,增速較上半年的8.4%有所加快。
“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)正在向消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)變,,”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)稱,,“中國(guó)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字或許不可靠,但是根據(jù)我們監(jiān)測(cè)的許多指標(biāo)——從鐵路客運(yùn)到人們外出旅游的路程長(zhǎng)短,,從航空旅行到快遞服務(wù)和用電——服務(wù)業(yè)正處于健康狀態(tài),。”
中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)為何表現(xiàn)相對(duì)良好?
與傳統(tǒng)的福利國(guó)家不同,,中國(guó)長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)一直是儲(chǔ)蓄國(guó),。但是,中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在非必需商品和服務(wù)上的支出一直處于上升態(tài)勢(shì),。房車營(yíng)地日益流行,。據(jù)美國(guó)電影協(xié)會(huì)(Motion Picture Association of America)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年中國(guó)的電影票房收入達(dá)到48億美元,。中國(guó)政府也在大力支持休閑性消費(fèi),,因?yàn)檫@有助于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡,減少對(duì)投資的依賴,。7月,,中國(guó)國(guó)家通訊社新華社對(duì)西部城市重慶郊外山區(qū)的“宿營(yíng)市場(chǎng)”進(jìn)行了報(bào)道,那里的商販在帳篷中出售從“設(shè)計(jì)師婚紗到西班牙紅酒”等各式商品,。
好吧,,那么我如何在這方面投資,?
難點(diǎn)就在這里。由于中國(guó)的會(huì)計(jì)及公司治理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)較不完善,,而且一家企業(yè)乃至整個(gè)行業(yè)都有可能突然失寵于共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層,,因此購(gòu)買中國(guó)公司的股票是一項(xiàng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。
國(guó)美電器(Gome)就是一個(gè)實(shí)例,。這家電器零售商由黃光裕創(chuàng)立,,他曾經(jīng)是中國(guó)首富。而如今,,黃光裕成了中國(guó)最富有的囚犯之一,,他于2010年因內(nèi)幕交易和賄賂而被判有期徒刑14年,這是受政治控制的中國(guó)法庭選擇性施加的懲罰,。該公司如今仍然運(yùn)行良好,,表面上看來(lái)是一個(gè)很好的消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)故事,因?yàn)樵絹?lái)越多的中國(guó)家庭購(gòu)買洗衣機(jī)和冰箱,。但是,,7月國(guó)美從獄中的黃光裕手中購(gòu)買了部分資產(chǎn)后,股價(jià)一天之內(nèi)暴跌了15%——據(jù)分析師表示,,收購(gòu)價(jià)格過(guò)高,。
我可以投資追蹤中國(guó)消費(fèi)者支出的資產(chǎn)嗎?
謹(jǐn)慎的投資者可以在不實(shí)際投資中國(guó)股票的情況下享受中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的收益,,盡管這在過(guò)去更加容易,。在固定資產(chǎn)投資推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代,全球尤其是澳大利亞開(kāi)采銅,、鐵礦石等資源的礦商都是熱門(mén)的投資選擇,。
富達(dá)(Fidelity)投資總監(jiān)湯姆史蒂文森(Tom Stevenson)稱,可以看看受益于中國(guó)旅游發(fā)展的日本企業(yè),,因?yàn)槿毡镜墓局卫砑皶?huì)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高于亞洲較不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,。
受日元貶值的吸引,中國(guó)游客蜂擁前往日本購(gòu)買他們一般傾向于在海外購(gòu)買的日常用品,,如維生素,、尿片和馬桶圈等。日本花王集團(tuán)(KaoCorporation)是在中國(guó)大受歡迎的尿片品牌妙而舒(Merries)的生產(chǎn)商,,該集團(tuán)眼下正是西方資產(chǎn)管理公司的寵兒,。然而,花王股票的預(yù)期市盈率達(dá)到32倍,,這也反映出市場(chǎng)熱情,。
現(xiàn)在中國(guó)有我可以利用的管理基金嗎?
有很多,,其中許多基金管理公司都很看重消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域,。
不過(guò),,很多專業(yè)投資者在中國(guó)遭遇慘敗。由富達(dá)的安東尼波頓(Anthony Bolton)在中國(guó)管理的一只基金,,表現(xiàn)遜于投資者預(yù)期,。波頓在英國(guó)被認(rèn)為是選股大師。兩年前退休時(shí),,他承認(rèn)對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)很多事情都想錯(cuò)了,。
現(xiàn)在有一些泛亞洲基金的經(jīng)理正在利用中國(guó)消費(fèi)熱潮,卻對(duì)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的中國(guó)公司持股不多,。杜樂(lè)奇(Angus Tulloch)就是其中一位,他管理著First State Asia Pacific Leaders基金,。他持有股份第二多的企業(yè)是臺(tái)積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp),。臺(tái)積電是助力中國(guó)智能手機(jī)行業(yè)發(fā)展的芯片的供應(yīng)商巨頭。杜樂(lè)奇持股第三多的是香港的長(zhǎng)江和記實(shí)業(yè)(CK Hutchison Holdings),。長(zhǎng)江和記在香港擁有眾多零售商,,從藥店屈臣氏(Watsons)到電器連鎖商豐澤(Fortress),這些零售商很受中國(guó)內(nèi)地來(lái)港購(gòu)物者的青睞,。
杜樂(lè)奇的基金收取4%的高額入場(chǎng)費(fèi),,之后收取1.6%的年費(fèi)。在過(guò)去12個(gè)月中,,該基金的回報(bào)率為-6.8%,。然而,金融數(shù)據(jù)提供商TrustNet指出,,依據(jù)“很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間的記錄”,,杜樂(lè)奇“經(jīng)常”跑贏同行。
有交易所交易基金(ETF)嗎,?
常有研究表明,,最主動(dòng)的基金經(jīng)理無(wú)法打敗市場(chǎng),當(dāng)然任何明星經(jīng)理過(guò)去的表現(xiàn)都不能代表他們未來(lái)的表現(xiàn),。被動(dòng)追蹤一籃子股票的低成本工具ETF,,是另外一種選擇。ETFDB數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)顯示,,在中國(guó)有一個(gè)可供使用的此類工具——“中國(guó)消費(fèi)者指數(shù)ETF-Global X”,。不過(guò),該ETF在紐約證交所上市,,因此英國(guó)投資者或許希望咨詢股票經(jīng)紀(jì)人或金融顧問(wèn),,以決定該ETF是否適合他們。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
China’s economic output increased by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter, year-on-year — its most sluggish performance since the global financial crisis — according to data published this week.
But behind this lacklustre number, China’s consumers are spending more and the job market appears robust (see charts), which makes certain sectors of the economy a potentially attractive investment.
Five years ago, China achieved double-digit growth, which the government created by pouring debt into new railways, roads and bridges and allowing abundant credit to create a property bubble.
While the stimulus investing has slowed, China’s retailers, travel and tourism groups and passenger transport companies that make up the so-called service sector are still doing well. This services sector grew 8.6 per cent year-on-year, in the third quarter, up from 8.4 per cent in the first half.
“The Chinese economy is undoubtedly shifting towards consumption,” said Julian Evans Pritchard, analyst at Capital Economics. “Chinese statistics can be unreliable, but on a number of measures we monitor, from passenger rail transport to the distances people are travelling, to air travel to courier services to electricity consumption, the services sector is healthy.”
Why is China’s services sector doing relatively well?
With little in the way of a traditional welfare state, China has long been a nation of savers. But spending on non-essential goods and services has been on the rise. Caravan parks are growing in popularity, while China accounted for $4.8bn of box office receipts last year, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. The government has also thrown its weight behind leisure spending as it helps rebalance the economy away from investment. In July, Chinese state news agency Xinhua publicised a “camping market” in the hills outside the western Chinese city of Chongqing, wher stallholders sell goods, from “designer wedding dresses to Spanish wine,” from their tents.
Ok, so how do I invest in that?
That is the hard part. Because of weak accounting and corporate governance standards in China, and the risk that a company or an entire industry can suddenly fall out of favour with the Communist Party leadership, buying shares in Chinese companies is a high-risk activity.
Gome provides a case study in what can go wrong. The electricals retailer was founded by Huang Guangyu, an entrepreneur who was once China’s richest man. He is now one of the country’s richest prisoners, havin been jailed in 2010 for 14 years for insider trading and bribery, which are punishments that China’s politically controlled courts impose selecively. The company remains in good health, and superficially offers a good consumer growth story, as more Chinese households are buying washing machines and fridges. But in July, Gome’s shares plunged 15 per cent in a day after the retailer bought some assets fro the jailed Mr Huang at what analysts said was an inflated price.
Can I invest in assets that track China consumer spending?
Cautious investors can gain exposure to growth without actually investing in Chinese shares, though this used to be much easier. In the days of double-digit growth fuelled by fixed asset investment, global or Australian miners of materials such as copper and iron ore were a popular choice.
Tom Stevenson, Fidelity investment director, says it is worth looking at Japanese companies that benefit from growth in Chinese tourism, as Japan has better corporate governance and accounting standards than less developed countries in Asia.
Tempted by the weak yen, Chinese tourists have been flocking to Japan to buy basic goods they traditionally prefer purchasing abroad, such as vitamins, nappies and toilet seats. Kao Corporation, a Japanese group which makes a brand of nappies called Merries that are popular in China, is currently a darling of western asset managers. Its shares, however, reflect that enthusiasm, currently trading on 32 times forecast earnings.
Are there any managed funds I can use?
There are many, with scores of managers prioritising the consumer sector.
China has humbled many a professional investor, though. A China fund run by Fidelity’s Anthony Bolton, who was considered a stockpicking guru in the UK, did less well than investors expected. When he retired two years ago, he admitted he had got many things wrong about the market.
There are some managers of pan-Asian funds who are playing the Chinese consumer boom without owning too many risky Chinese companies. One is Angus Tulloch, who runs the First State Asia Pacific Leaders fund and whose second-biggest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, a huge supplier of the chips that power Chinese smartphones. His third-largest is Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison, which owns a clutch of retailers in the territory, from drugstore Watsons to electricals chain Fortress, that are popular with shoppers visiting from mainland China.
Mr Tulloch’s fund charges a hefty initial entry fee of 4 per cent, followed by a 1.6 per cent annual fee. In the past 12 months it has returned minus 6.8 per cent. Trustnet, however, points out that Mr Tulloch has “over a long track record” outperformed his peers “more often than not”.
Are there any exchange traded funds?
Research has regularly shown that most active fund managers cannot beat the market, and of course any star manager’s past performance is no indication of how they will fare in the future. Exchange-traded funds, which are lower-cost instruments that passively track a basket of stocks, are another option. According to the ETFDB database, there is one such tracker available, the Global X China Consumer ETF. It is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, however, so British investors may want to seek advice from a stockbroker or financial adviser to decide whether it is suitable for them.