??
據(jù)美國能源情報署(EIA)對中國最新發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)的分析,，本世紀中國的煤炭消費量被顯著低估,，這使氣候變化談判代表們在今年12月巴黎聯(lián)合國氣候大會前面臨更多問題,。
根據(jù)北京方面今年夏天發(fā)布的修正數(shù)據(jù),，EIA得出結(jié)論,，在2000年到2013年間,，全球最大的污染國和煤炭消費國燃燒的煤炭量高出之前報告的數(shù)值至多14%,。該機構(gòu)表示，這意味著中國的能源消費量和產(chǎn)量也要高得多,。
EIA的分析與中國的增長情況相符：2013年之前的10年期間,，中國經(jīng)濟高速增長，現(xiàn)在則緩慢得多,。但這項分析也讓氣候變化談判者賴以確定各國排放水平的計算陷入了混亂,。今年12月的巴黎氣候談判將試圖遏止這些排放，希望防止危險的全球變暖,。
中國將國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)數(shù)據(jù)設(shè)定為政治目標,，這種做法讓中國的增長軌跡極為平順，批評者稱這掩蓋了中國經(jīng)濟的真實周期,。2000年至2013年間能源消費量更高,，與其他一些表明中國經(jīng)濟在此期間比官方數(shù)據(jù)增長更快的指標吻合，包括高昂的大宗商品價格,、煤礦業(yè)的繁榮以及私營煤礦和冶煉廠的大量出現(xiàn),。
類似的，達到目標的動機也可能掩蓋當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟放緩的程度,。2014年中國報告煤炭產(chǎn)量下降,，曾讓綠色和平(Greenpeace)等許多環(huán)保主義者感到振奮，令人期待中國的排放量或許能夠早于官方提出的目標——2030年之前見頂回落,。
EIA的分析還得出一個結(jié)論,，煤炭消費量的增長正在大幅放緩。該機構(gòu)稱,，“根據(jù)能量含量來計算,，2014年中國的煤炭消費量基本持平”,，同期中國的煤炭產(chǎn)量下降了2.6%。
上個月,，科學(xué)期刊《自然》(Nature)的一篇論文主張,，因為對中國煤炭品質(zhì)的假設(shè)有誤，中國的碳排放量實際低于國際機構(gòu)的估算結(jié)果,。那篇論文的幾名作者表示,，即使假設(shè)中國使用了比官方統(tǒng)計數(shù)字多出10%的煤炭，中國的排放量依然被高估,。
然而,，EIA的分析所依據(jù)的修正后統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)表明，通過燃燒煤炭所釋放出的能量在2014年同比小幅上升,，反映出隨著煤炭降價淘汰了一些最低品質(zhì)煤的供應(yīng)商,，高品質(zhì)煤在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的比重有所提升。（中國進出口網(wǎng)）
China’s coal use this century has been significantly underestimated, according to analysis of new Chinese data by the US Energy Information Administration, adding to climate change negotiators’ problems ahead of December’s UN conference in Paris.
based on revised data released by Beijing this summer, the EIA has concluded that the world’s largest polluter and consumer of coal burnt up to 14 per cent more of the fossil fuel between 2000 and 2013 than previously reported. It said this meant China’s energy consumption and production were also much higher.
The EIA’s analysis squares with the supercharged economic growth of the decade before 2013 and much slower growth now but throws into confusion the calculations on which climate change negotiators rely to determine the level of emissions produced by each nation. Talks this December in Paris will attempt to rein in those emissions, in the hopes of preventing dangerous global warming.
The fact that China has made GDP figures a political target has resulted in a remarkably smooth growth path, which critics say obscures the real cycles in the Chinese economy. Higher energy consumption from 2000-2013 would tally with other indicators of an economy that grew more quickly than official figures over that period suggest, including high commodity prices, a boom in coal mining and the proliferation of private mines and smelters.
Similarly, the motivation to hit targets may mask the extent of the current economic slowdown. A reported dro in China’s coal output in 2014 has cheered environmentalists, including Greenpeace, and raised hopes that the country’s emissions might peak and begin to decline before the official target of 2030.
The EIA’s analysis also concluded that growth in coal use was slowing dramatically. “In 2014, energy-content-based coal consumption was essentially flat”, while coal production fell by 2.6 per cent, it said.
Last month a study in the journal Nature argued that Chinese emissions were actually lower than estimated by international institutes, because of incorrect assumptions about the quality of Chinese coal. The authors said emissions were overestimated despite assuming the country’s actual coal consumption was 10 per cent higher than Chinese government data showed.
However, the revised Chinese statistics on which the EIA’s analysis is based indicate that energy released through coal consumption edged up slightly in 2014 compared with 2013, reflecting a greater proportion of higher-quality coal in the mix as dropping prices cut out the lowest-quality suppliers.
