可能對(duì)中國(guó)首季度gdp增速來(lái)說(shuō),,降至7%完全在人們意料之內(nèi),。畢竟,這個(gè)增速本身就是本年度的目標(biāo),。
可是,,讓人吃驚的是經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力:消費(fèi)超過(guò)了投資,服務(wù)業(yè)超過(guò)了制造業(yè),,同時(shí),,國(guó)內(nèi)需求超過(guò)了出口。今天的數(shù)據(jù)加上三月份的數(shù)據(jù),,還有2014年全年的數(shù)據(jù)都表明,,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力正在改變。
消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)了2014年7.4%經(jīng)濟(jì)增速中的3.8%,,這已經(jīng)超過(guò)了投資貢獻(xiàn)的3.6%,。凈出口——也就是出口減去進(jìn)口——貢獻(xiàn)為0,。
消費(fèi)對(duì)gdp的貢獻(xiàn)已經(jīng)超過(guò)了50%,,這在2009年只有35%,而市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)部分消費(fèi)的貢獻(xiàn)則已經(jīng)從gdp的一半上升到三分之二,。
這折射出經(jīng)濟(jì)體中服務(wù)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng),,主要為不可交易貨物(比如理發(fā))的服務(wù)業(yè),,已經(jīng)變得比制造業(yè)(包括很多出口貨物)更大龐大。
真正的房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)
確實(shí),,3月份的工業(yè)增速為5.6%,,創(chuàng)下最慢記錄,被零售業(yè)(一項(xiàng)消費(fèi)指標(biāo))大幅度超越——零售業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)10%,。
這就是中國(guó)想要達(dá)到的——經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡,,從過(guò)度依賴出口和投資,到主要依賴它自己的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)消費(fèi)者與擴(kuò)張的服務(wù)業(yè),。
這是他們目標(biāo)的一部分,,他們的目標(biāo)是,通過(guò)提高經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力質(zhì)量,,跨過(guò)中等收入陷阱,,實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步繁榮。
通過(guò)消費(fèi)和服務(wù)業(yè)驅(qū)動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)與歐美發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的驅(qū)動(dòng)方式很相似,。所以,,中國(guó)的再平衡標(biāo)志著,,基于工業(yè)化的高速增長(zhǎng)時(shí)代開(kāi)始終結(jié)。
制造業(yè)和"追趕效應(yīng)"讓中國(guó)在35年內(nèi)從一個(gè)貧窮的國(guó)家成為一個(gè)中等收入國(guó)家,。在下一階段,,中國(guó)將作為一個(gè)中等收入國(guó)家繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),而增長(zhǎng)的速度自然要比初始階段慢一些,。
不準(zhǔn)確的統(tǒng)計(jì)
畢竟,對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō),,5%的增速看起來(lái)很慢,,同時(shí),對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō),,3%的增速被認(rèn)為很快,。
然而,很多減速會(huì)造成危機(jī),。對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),,很明顯的是,房地產(chǎn)和投資可能會(huì)過(guò)快減速,,并造成銀行危機(jī),。這就是為什么政府會(huì)出臺(tái)措施支撐房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),并降低利率以鼓勵(lì)借貸,。
如果新增就業(yè)崗位減少,,政府也可能會(huì)采取措施提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。但是,,到目前為止,,低速增長(zhǎng)并不意味著更少的就業(yè)崗位,因?yàn)榉?wù)型經(jīng)濟(jì)是勞動(dòng)密集型經(jīng)濟(jì),,而去年的新增就業(yè)崗位達(dá)到1300萬(wàn),,已經(jīng)超過(guò)了制定的新增1000萬(wàn)就業(yè)的目標(biāo)。
失業(yè)率為5.1%——雖然可能是不準(zhǔn)確信息,,因?yàn)檗r(nóng)村就業(yè)率很難掌握,。
所以,經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡看起來(lái)比頭版頭條的那個(gè)《金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最慢增速》要美好得多,。但是,,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)有非常大的不確定性,并不總是可靠的,,相反,,金融系統(tǒng)中的微觀部分才能洞悉天機(jī)。
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織昨天下調(diào)了中國(guó)今年和明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速至7%,。如果增速下滑嚴(yán)重——即使按照計(jì)劃進(jìn)行的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整——也會(huì)降低需求,,影響償還貸款的能力,。
商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商都有高杠桿,據(jù)報(bào)道他們也很難租出自己的寫(xiě)字樓,。房?jī)r(jià)下跌已經(jīng)席卷了整個(gè)國(guó)家,,貸款已經(jīng)被放松用以提振需求。
當(dāng)中國(guó)試圖做一件其他國(guó)家從未做過(guò)的事情——讓超過(guò)10億的龐大人口同時(shí)跨過(guò)中等收入陷阱——時(shí),,這些問(wèn)題就毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的被放大了,。
世界上其他所有國(guó)家從沒(méi)有體驗(yàn)過(guò)的是:這個(gè)世界上第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在著手進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)激動(dòng)人心的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變,轉(zhuǎn)變的過(guò)程如此的跌宕起伏,。
Probably the least surprising thing about China's GDP growth rate for the first three months of the year is that it slowed to 7%. After all, that's the target for the year.
What's more surprising are the drivers: consumption more than investment, services outpacing manufacturing, and domestic demand rather than exports. Taking today's figures and the data for March together with the full year picture for 2014 shows that China's growth drivers are changing.
Consumption contributed 3.8 percentage points to 2014's 7.4% growth rate, which is more than investment which accounted for 3.6 percentage points. Net exports - so exports minus imports - contributed nothing.
Consumption has risen to account for more than 50% of GDP, which is a sizeable increase from 2009's 35%, and finally places China in the realm of market economies wher consumption is between half to two-thirds of GDP.
It mirrors the rise of the services part of the economy, which includes non-tradeables like haircuts, becoming larger than manufacturing that included many exported goods.
Real estate risk
Indeed, industrial production in March expanded by 5.6%, the slowest on record, which was significantly outpaced by retail sales - a measure of consumption - which grew at over 10%.
This is what China has been trying to achieve - a re-balancing of its economy away from excessive reliance on exports and investment and more on its own middle class consumers and expanding services.
It's part of their aim of overcoming the middle income country trap to become prosperous by improving the quality of the growth drivers in the economy.
Growing more through consumption and services is similar to the growth drivers of developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe. So, China's re-balancing also marks the beginning of the end of a period of rapid growth that is based on industrialisation.
Manufacturing and "catching up" launched China from a poor to a middle income country in the past 35 years. The next stage is growing as a middle income economy, which will naturally be slower than the initial phase.
Statistical uncertainty
After all, 5% growth for an emerging market looks slow while 3% growth for a developed one would be considered fast.
Still, any slowdown poses risks. For China, it is notably in terms of real estate and investment which may be slowing down too quickly and poses a risk for banks. It is why the government has introduced measures to support the housing market and cut interest rates to stimulate lending.
The government is also likely to spend to support the economy if job growth slows. But, so far, a slower growth rate hasn't meant fewer jobs since a services economy is labour-intensive and last year saw 13 million plus jobs created against a 10 million target.
The unemployment rate is 5.1% - though that's likely to be mis-measured since rural area employment isn't well captured.
So, the picture in terms of re-balancing looks better than the headline growth rate of the slowest quarterly growth rate since the global financial crisis. But, the biggest uncertainties lie beyond the macroeconomic statistics, which aren't always reliable, and instead reside in the micro picture for the financial system.Dramatic transformation.
The IMF yesterday downgraded China's growth to below 7% this year and next year. If growth slows down considerably - even if planned as part of the restructuring of the economy - then will lower demand affect the ability to repay loans?
Commercial developers are leveraged and there are reported difficulties in leasing office space. House prices have fallen across the country and requirements have been loosened for mortgages.
These are questions that will undoubtedly be raised as China seeks to do what no other country has done, which is to overcome the middle income trap for a billion-plus population.
What the rest of the world also has never experienced is its second largest economy undertaking such a dramatic structural transformation that is likely to entail volatility.