從歷史角度看,，中國(guó)官員們有理由期望已經(jīng)高度工業(yè)化的西方帶頭解決氣候變化問題,。中國(guó)只占全球歷史總排放量的11%，而西方已通過幾個(gè)世紀(jì)的化石燃料使用實(shí)現(xiàn)了繁榮,。
然而,，無論中國(guó)樂不樂意，它都已成為未來全球氣溫和氣候的主要決定因素,。
聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書長(zhǎng)潘基文(Ban Ki-Moon)本周邀請(qǐng)世界各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人訪問紐約,，以期打破全球在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化問題上的談判僵局。為此,，我和我的同事們發(fā)布了最新的年度全球“碳排放預(yù)算”報(bào)告,，希望能幫助大家厘清思路。你可以把“碳排放預(yù)算”想象成家庭開支預(yù)算——全世界所有國(guó)家去年花掉了多少預(yù)算（或者說向大氣中排放了多少二氧化碳）,？若要避免危險(xiǎn)的氣候變化,，還有多少預(yù)算可以花？
我們的報(bào)告顯示,，若不以國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP),、而以二氧化碳污染量來衡量，中國(guó)已是全球主要的工業(yè)國(guó)家之一,，而不再是“發(fā)展中國(guó)家”,。2013年，中國(guó)向大氣中排放了100億噸二氧化碳,，占全球總排放量的近三分之一,。
中國(guó)的二氧化碳排放量在2006年超過美國(guó)，自那以來,，中國(guó)一直是全球最大的碳排放國(guó),。中國(guó)的碳排放量如今已超過美國(guó)和歐洲的總和,。按現(xiàn)在的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展下去，到2019年,，中國(guó)的碳排放量將超過美國(guó),、歐洲和印度的總和。
中國(guó)的人均碳排放量如今已超過歐洲,，是世界平均水平的1.45倍,。即便是考慮到中國(guó)人均GDP水平仍然較低、以及中國(guó)有16%的碳排放源于為其他地區(qū)生產(chǎn)商品,，也很難再繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持一個(gè)主張,，即中國(guó)無須在打破氣候談判僵局中扮演主要角色。
基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力,，也是碳排放量迅速增長(zhǎng)的主要原因,。我們的統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，在中國(guó)和美國(guó),，來自現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的碳排放,，會(huì)導(dǎo)致這兩國(guó)的排放量超過它們?cè)谌蚴Ｓ嗳司寂欧排漕~中應(yīng)占的比例。各國(guó)科學(xué)家和政策制定者——包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)——普遍認(rèn)同一點(diǎn)：全球氣溫上升,，應(yīng)以高出前工業(yè)時(shí)代的氣溫2攝氏度為限,，而要將氣溫保持在這一限度內(nèi)，就必須實(shí)施這樣的配額,。
如遵循這一配額,，全球氣溫有66%的幾率不超過上述2攝氏度的上限。而這一配額的總量,，僅相當(dāng)于迄今全球二氧化碳總排放量的三分之一,。按照現(xiàn)在的排放速度，或許僅僅再有一代人的時(shí)間（30年）,，2攝氏度的上限就會(huì)被打破,。
全球氣候變化的代價(jià)，通常會(huì)由一些局部地區(qū)承擔(dān)——那里會(huì)出現(xiàn)更多的洪澇災(zāi)害,、臺(tái)風(fēng)和旱災(zāi),，對(duì)食物生產(chǎn)和人類健康構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)。同樣,，削減碳排放的好處也更多體現(xiàn)在局部地區(qū),，特別是就中國(guó)而言。
《柳葉刀》(Lancet)稱,，中國(guó)每年有逾100萬人因嚴(yán)重的空氣污染死亡,。兒童和老年人面對(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大。如果中國(guó)能實(shí)現(xiàn)艱巨的減排目標(biāo),，意味著空氣污染將大幅緩解,。
燃燒較便宜的低品位煤炭會(huì)造成更大的污染,。2010年，中國(guó)燃煤排放了300萬噸粉塵和2000萬噸二氧化硫,。這些精細(xì)粉塵會(huì)滲入人的肺部和血液中,，被世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)歸為1類致癌物(Group 1 carcinogen)。
今年3月,，中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)曾宣稱：“我們要像對(duì)貧困宣戰(zhàn)一樣,，堅(jiān)決向污染宣戰(zhàn)。”其實(shí),，設(shè)計(jì)良好的抗污措施，也能有效地緩解氣候變化,，反之亦然,。
中國(guó)還可以起到表率作用，向世界展示如何減排,。中國(guó)在提高能源使用效率方面取得的進(jìn)步,，超過了其他所有地區(qū)，但它進(jìn)步的速度仍不夠快,。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)高度依賴燃煤,，過去十年二氧化碳排放量翻了一番。目前,，中國(guó)的目標(biāo)是,，在截至2015年的5年內(nèi)，通過提高能源使用效率,，將二氧化碳等價(jià)排放量減少30億噸,，這相當(dāng)于美國(guó)2010年排放量的60%。不過,，這一目標(biāo),，與中國(guó)碳排放的規(guī)模、以及氣候問題的緊迫性并不相稱,。
在國(guó)內(nèi)外市場(chǎng)中推廣和運(yùn)用新技術(shù)方面,，中國(guó)的力度也是西方無法比擬的。中國(guó)在可再生能源領(lǐng)域的投資領(lǐng)先全球,，2012年占全球總投資的五分之一以上,。2011年，中國(guó)可再生能源裝機(jī)容量已是美國(guó)的兩倍,。中國(guó)風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)組和水力發(fā)電站的發(fā)電量為全世界最高,。一旦世界各國(guó)在氣候變化上達(dá)成具有約束力的協(xié)議，就立刻會(huì)為中國(guó)的低碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)造一個(gè)全球市場(chǎng),。
一個(gè)更為低碳的中國(guó),，長(zhǎng)期而言能帶來許多經(jīng)濟(jì)益處,，同時(shí)能提高能源安全、水資源安全,、食品安全,，從而有益于人類自身的安全。反過來說,，如果忽視全球和中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)碳排放的增長(zhǎng),，將威脅到人類對(duì)充足的食品和水的獲取、人類的健康和幸福,、以及中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期繁榮,。
要想在紐約峰會(huì)上就氣候變化問題達(dá)成國(guó)際協(xié)議、在全球推廣中國(guó)的低碳技術(shù)和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)驗(yàn),，中國(guó)必須擔(dān)當(dāng)起帶頭人的角色,。各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們?cè)诳箵魵夂蜃兓细訄?jiān)定、協(xié)調(diào)一致,，就能將中國(guó)的發(fā)展引導(dǎo)至一條更清潔,、更高效的道路。對(duì)中國(guó)來說,，現(xiàn)在就該加速讓經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)擺脫對(duì)化石燃料的依賴,。這會(huì)給中國(guó)帶來立竿見影的好處，不論對(duì)現(xiàn)在的中國(guó)人,，還是未來幾代人而言,。
作者科琳娜•勒凱雷(Corinne Le Quéré)是全球碳計(jì)劃(Global Carbon Project)組織評(píng)估碳來源和去向方面的國(guó)際權(quán)威。她是東英吉利大學(xué)(University of East Anglia)氣候科學(xué)與政策研究教授,、廷德爾氣候變化研究中心(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)主任,、復(fù)旦大學(xué)(Fudan University)廷德爾中心(Tyndall Centre)定期訪問人員。
作者關(guān)達(dá)博是一位氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與政策研究方面的專家,。他是聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)《第三工作組評(píng)估報(bào)告：減緩氣候變化》(Assessment on Mitigation)的主要作者之一,。（更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)） China’s politicians have legitimate historical reasons for expecting the industrialised West to take the lead on dealing with climate change. China is responsible for only 11% of past emissions while the West has flourished from centuries of burning fossil fuels.
However, China is now the main decider on the future global temperature and climate of the world, whether it likes it or not.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon this week invites World Leaders to New York to break the deadlock on negotiating what to do about the international challenge of climate change. This is why my colleagues and I have published our latest annual updat on the global carbon budget, to help focus minds. You can view the carbon budget like the housekeeping budget. How much carbon did all countries of the world last year spend, or emit to the atmosphere, and how much have we left to avoid dangerous climate change?
We show that measured as CO2 pollution instead of GDP, China is the leading global industrialist. China is not a developing country. In 2013, China put 10 billion tonnes of CO2 pollution into the atmosphere, almost one third of global emissions.
China has been the largest emitter of CO2 pollution since 2006 when it overtook the US. Emissions in China now exceed the combined emissions of the US and Europe. If trends continue along the current trajectory, by 2019 China’s emissions will overtake the US, Europe and India combined.
With China’s per capita emissions now larger than those of Europeans and 45% above the world average, it is difficult to argue against a leadership role for China in solving the international stalemate in climate negotiations, even when considering its lower GDP and the fact that 16% of Chinese emissions are from goods manufactured for elsewher.
Construction of infrastructure is the major driver of China’s rapid economic and emissions growth. Our global carbon budget shows that emissions from existing infrastructure will lead China and the US to exceed their fair access to the remaining CO2 emissions quota on a world per-capita basis. This quota is necessary to keep climate change below two degrees warming above pre-industrial temperatures, a limit that is widely supported by scientists and policymakers around the world, including in China.
The CO2 emissions quota, which gives the world a 66 per cent chance of remaining below 2 degrees is only about one third of that total emitted so far. At current emissions this means that there is just one generation (30 years) before the safeguards to a two-degree limit may be breached.
The global costs of climate change will be borne locally – more flooding and coastal storm surges, more droughts, strains on food production and health. The benefits of cutting carbon emissions are also regional and local, particularly in the case of China.
Over 1 million deaths can be attributed each year to severe air pollution in China, said the Lancet Medical Journal. Children and old people are most at risk. Achieving ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions means less air pollution.
Burning cheaper low-grade coal is more polluting. Coal burning in 2010 produced 3 million tonnes of microscopic particulates and 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide emissions that penetrate deep into lungs and the blood stream. These fine particles are classified a Group 1 carcinogen by the cancer agency by the World Health Organization.
Premier Li Keqiang in March declared “war against pollution and fight it with the same determination we battled poverty”. Action to fight air pollution, if well designed, also fights climate change and vice versa.
China could also lead the rest of the world in showing the world how to slash emissions. China has made energy efficiency progress at a scale unequalled anywher else, but not fast enough. CO2 emissions in China doubled in the past ten years because of surging economic growth fuelled by coal. China currently aims to cut the equivalent of 3 billion tonnes of CO2 in efficiency improvements for the five years to 2015, the same as 60% of US emissions at 2010 levels, but this does not match the scale of Chinese emissions and the urgency of the climate problem.
China also deploys new technology and penetrates domestic and international markets at speeds unequalled in the West. It leads the world in renewable energy, investing more than one-fifth of the global total for 2012. In 2011, installed renewable capacity was already twice the US. China's wind turbines and hydropower stations are the world's most productive. A binding international agreement on climate change instantly creates for China a global market for its low carbon technologies.
There are many long term economic advantages to implementing a low carbon future in China, with co-benefits to energy security, water security, food security, and therefore human security. In turn, ignoring the rise in global and local carbon emissions threatens access to sufficient food and water, human health and wellbeing and the long-term prosperity of China.
The global leadership of China is crucial for an international agreement in New York on climate change and the deployment of its low carbon technologies and market knowhow is essential around the world. Strong collective political action on climate change could bring China’s development journey to a new path of cleaner air and energy efficiency. The race is on for China to decouple economic growth from fossil fuel burning. The benefits are immediate for current citizens and for generations not yet born.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré is an international authority in assessing carbon sources and sinks with the Global Carbon Project. She is Professor of Climate Science and Policy at the University of East Anglia, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a regular visitor to the Tyndall Centre at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Professor Dabo Guan is an expert in climate change economicsand policy. He is a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment on Mitigation and a winner of the Philip Leverhulme Prize for outstanding scholars at an international level. He is joining the University of East Anglia as Professor of Climate Change and Development.  （更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）