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印度經(jīng)濟(jì)3年左右將趕超中國(guó),?

India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

放大字體??縮小字體 ??來(lái)源:FT中文網(wǎng)??瀏覽次數(shù):993
核心提示:印度在就任剛滿(mǎn)百日的印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,開(kāi)始重新煥發(fā)活力,。
印度在就任剛滿(mǎn)百日的印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,開(kāi)始重新煥發(fā)活力。

鑒于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率有放緩至7%的趨勢(shì),,預(yù)言印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速或許會(huì)超越中國(guó)不再顯得荒誕不經(jīng)了,。

印度最大資產(chǎn)管理公司HDFC共同基金的主管普拉尚特•賈殷(Prashant Jain)表示,印度在幾年后就將超越中國(guó),,成為全世界增長(zhǎng)速度最快的大型發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。

諷刺的是,莫迪跟印度經(jīng)濟(jì)此次反彈關(guān)系不大,,甚至可以說(shuō)毫無(wú)關(guān)系,。

本次反彈更應(yīng)該歸功于一年前上任的印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長(zhǎng)拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan),他采取措施抑制通脹,,幫助重振商界信心,。

然而,印度在整體上信心回歸要?dú)w功于莫迪,。他在5月以壓倒性多數(shù)勝出,、當(dāng)選總理,他那種目標(biāo)明確,、毫不含糊的的作風(fēng),,以及支持企業(yè)的名聲,都提升了市場(chǎng)信心,。

盡管如此,,人們?nèi)杂谐浞掷碛蓪?duì)印度突然強(qiáng)勁起來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)步伐保持警惕。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱(chēng),,要達(dá)到更嚴(yán)格的財(cái)政赤字目標(biāo),,莫迪將不得不進(jìn)一步減支。因此在未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度,,印度經(jīng)濟(jì)很有可能再次回落,。

人們?cè)趯⒂《扰c中國(guó)相比的時(shí)候也更加謹(jǐn)慎,只是預(yù)言印度的增長(zhǎng)率將逐漸趨近中國(guó),。以前,,人們?cè)Q(chēng)印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式將被證明比中國(guó)更先進(jìn),得益于印度更年輕的人口結(jié)構(gòu),、印度的民主體制,、以及英語(yǔ)普及程度。事實(shí)證明這些預(yù)言錯(cuò)得如此離譜,,以至于沒(méi)有多少人會(huì)重提,。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)
U11471P31DT20140903072844 (1)
India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

India became resurgent under the leadership of Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, just taking office for one hundred days.

Given China's economic growth has slowed to 7%, it no longer seems absurd that India’s economic growth will surpass China’s.

Prashant Jain, the manager of India's largest asset management company HDFC Mutual Fund said, India will overtake China in the next few years, to become the world's fastest growing major developing economies.

Ironically, there is little relationship between Modi and the Indian economy rebound, or even there is no relationship.

The rebound should be attributed to Raghuram Rajan who is the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and took office one year ago. he took measures to curb inflation and help revive business confidence.

However, India’s overall confidence return thanks to Modi. His won an overwhelming majority of support in May and was elected prime minister. Resorting to his clear objectives, unambiguous style and support-for-corporate reputation, Modi improves market confidence.

Nevertheless, people still have good reasons for India's sudden surge to remain vigilant. Economists warns that in order to reach more stringent fiscal deficit goal, Modi will have to further cut public spending. Therefore, in the next few quarters, the Indian economy is likely to fall again.

People become more cautious when comparing India with China, but predicted that India's growth rate will gradually be closer to China. Previously, people had claimed that India's economic model will be proved more advanced than China’s, thanks to a younger demographic in India, India's democratic institutions, as well as English pervasiveness. These predictions proved so outrageous that there are not many people repeating.

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