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中國人民銀行研究局首席經(jīng)濟學家馬駿在參加2014夏季達沃斯“中國前景展望”分論壇時表示,，中國出口增長還是比較好的,，但經(jīng)濟還存在下行風險,，主要是房地產(chǎn)銷售比較疲弱，房地產(chǎn)投資可能會進一步放緩,。
但是中國還是有政策來保持今后經(jīng)濟增長的總體穩(wěn)定的,。另外需要強調(diào)的一點是，盡管GDP增長有所放緩,，但就業(yè)形勢還不錯,，失業(yè)率呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，勞動力市場的供求關(guān)系在改善,。
對于中國經(jīng)濟的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,，我認為，中國未來的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將加速,，其中包括從制造業(yè)為主導(dǎo)的增長模式轉(zhuǎn)到服務(wù)業(yè)主導(dǎo)的模式,。這反映出了消費者偏好的變化，也反映出了人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,。有關(guān)人口預(yù)測估計,，我國的老齡人口在今后的15年將會增加70%，因此作為服務(wù)業(yè)一部分的醫(yī)療行業(yè)將會非?？焖俚匕l(fā)展,。
第二個重要的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化是能源結(jié)構(gòu)將從以常規(guī)煤炭為主轉(zhuǎn)向更多地消費清潔能源，包括天然氣,、風能,、太陽能。另外,，通過創(chuàng)新來提高附加值,，對沖勞動力成本快速上升和勞動密集型制造業(yè)外移的壓力，也是我們的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的一個重要內(nèi)容,。
中國的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)變化,，將對世界其他國家產(chǎn)生影響。由于中國勞動力成本進一步上升,，一些勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向其他新興市場,，包括印度、孟加拉國,、越南,，可以促進這些國家的增長，尤其它們的制造業(yè)和交通運輸業(yè)的發(fā)展,。
同時中國將進一步變成資本輸出的國家,，包括未來通過金磚五國銀行和亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行的渠道。另外中國還將是世界最大的清潔技術(shù)的消費和進口國,。去年,，中國的太陽能和風能的新增裝機容量已經(jīng)上升到世界當年新增裝機容量的約30%,，這個增長趨勢還可能持續(xù)。（中國進出口網(wǎng)）
Ma Jun, chief economist of Research Bureau People's Bank of China participated, in 2014 Summer Davos "China Prospects" sub-forum, China's export growth is still relatively good, but there are still downside risks in the economy, mainly because of relatively weak real estate sales. Real estate investment is likely to slow further.
But China still has a policy to maintain future overall stability of economic growth. Another point needs to be emphasized that, although GDP growth has slowed, but the employment situation is still good, the unemployment rate showed a downward trend and relationship between supply and demand in the labor market is improving.
For the structural transformation of the Chinese economy, I think that China will accelerate structural adjustment in the future, including the growth model transformed from manufacturing-led to service sector-led. This reflects a change in consumer preferences and population structure. Population projections estimate that China's aging population over the next 15 years will increase by 70%, therefore medical industry, as part of service industry,will develop very rapidly.
The second important structural change is the structure of energy shifted from conventional coal-based to more clean energy consumption, including natural gas, wind, solar. In addition, it is also an important part of our restructuring to reduce the pressure of rapidly rising labor costs and the relocation of labor-intensive manufacturing by increasing the additional value through innovation.
China's economic structural changes will have an impact on other countries around the world. Due to a further rise in Chinese labor costs, some labor-intensive industries turn to other emerging markets, including India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and that can promote the economy growth of these countries, especially the development of their manufacturing and transportation.
Meanwhile, China will further become a capital output country, including channels of BRICS Bank and the Asian infrastructure investment banks. In addition, China will be the world's largest consumer and importer of clean technologies. Last year, China's newly installed capacity of solar and wind energy has risen to about 30% of the world’s new capacity, and the growth trend may continue.
但是中國還是有政策來保持今后經(jīng)濟增長的總體穩(wěn)定的,。另外需要強調(diào)的一點是，盡管GDP增長有所放緩,，但就業(yè)形勢還不錯,，失業(yè)率呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，勞動力市場的供求關(guān)系在改善,。
對于中國經(jīng)濟的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,，我認為，中國未來的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將加速,，其中包括從制造業(yè)為主導(dǎo)的增長模式轉(zhuǎn)到服務(wù)業(yè)主導(dǎo)的模式,。這反映出了消費者偏好的變化，也反映出了人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,。有關(guān)人口預(yù)測估計,，我國的老齡人口在今后的15年將會增加70%，因此作為服務(wù)業(yè)一部分的醫(yī)療行業(yè)將會非?？焖俚匕l(fā)展,。
第二個重要的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化是能源結(jié)構(gòu)將從以常規(guī)煤炭為主轉(zhuǎn)向更多地消費清潔能源，包括天然氣,、風能,、太陽能。另外,，通過創(chuàng)新來提高附加值,，對沖勞動力成本快速上升和勞動密集型制造業(yè)外移的壓力，也是我們的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的一個重要內(nèi)容,。
中國的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)變化,，將對世界其他國家產(chǎn)生影響。由于中國勞動力成本進一步上升,，一些勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向其他新興市場,，包括印度、孟加拉國,、越南,，可以促進這些國家的增長，尤其它們的制造業(yè)和交通運輸業(yè)的發(fā)展,。
同時中國將進一步變成資本輸出的國家,，包括未來通過金磚五國銀行和亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行的渠道。另外中國還將是世界最大的清潔技術(shù)的消費和進口國,。去年,，中國的太陽能和風能的新增裝機容量已經(jīng)上升到世界當年新增裝機容量的約30%,，這個增長趨勢還可能持續(xù)。（中國進出口網(wǎng)）
Ma Jun, chief economist of Research Bureau People's Bank of China participated, in 2014 Summer Davos "China Prospects" sub-forum, China's export growth is still relatively good, but there are still downside risks in the economy, mainly because of relatively weak real estate sales. Real estate investment is likely to slow further.
But China still has a policy to maintain future overall stability of economic growth. Another point needs to be emphasized that, although GDP growth has slowed, but the employment situation is still good, the unemployment rate showed a downward trend and relationship between supply and demand in the labor market is improving.
For the structural transformation of the Chinese economy, I think that China will accelerate structural adjustment in the future, including the growth model transformed from manufacturing-led to service sector-led. This reflects a change in consumer preferences and population structure. Population projections estimate that China's aging population over the next 15 years will increase by 70%, therefore medical industry, as part of service industry,will develop very rapidly.
The second important structural change is the structure of energy shifted from conventional coal-based to more clean energy consumption, including natural gas, wind, solar. In addition, it is also an important part of our restructuring to reduce the pressure of rapidly rising labor costs and the relocation of labor-intensive manufacturing by increasing the additional value through innovation.
China's economic structural changes will have an impact on other countries around the world. Due to a further rise in Chinese labor costs, some labor-intensive industries turn to other emerging markets, including India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and that can promote the economy growth of these countries, especially the development of their manufacturing and transportation.
Meanwhile, China will further become a capital output country, including channels of BRICS Bank and the Asian infrastructure investment banks. In addition, China will be the world's largest consumer and importer of clean technologies. Last year, China's newly installed capacity of solar and wind energy has risen to about 30% of the world’s new capacity, and the growth trend may continue.
