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2016年的第一個交易日,，全球股市劇烈震蕩,。對中國經(jīng)濟放緩的新的憂慮激起了對全球經(jīng)濟增長的擔心。
本周一的拋售風潮始于亞洲,，引發(fā)因素是中國制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)疲軟及該國貨幣的持續(xù)走弱,。這股風潮蔓延到歐洲和美國，在那里,，中東緊張局勢的升級還加劇了市場的不安情緒。
幾個月來,，全球投資者對中國的經(jīng)濟前景越來越擔心,，一直小心關注著該國的狀況。去年夏天,，中國一度高企的股市出現(xiàn)暴跌,，人民幣也突然貶值，引發(fā)了世界范圍內(nèi)的劇烈震蕩,。
同樣的問題延續(xù)到了2016年,。本周一的一份報告顯示，中國制造業(yè)再度萎縮,。人民幣顯得搖搖欲墜,。
不過，投資者中還增添了一層新的憂慮,。中國在去年的市場震蕩之后出臺了一些措施來穩(wěn)定股市,，但這些措施正在加劇中國的拋售風潮。
“這將是今年的主題,，”匯豐亞洲證券策略師德文德拉·喬希(Devendra Joshi)表示,。“波動性將會加大,。”
本周一，幾乎所有市場都未能幸免,。
上海綜合指數(shù)下挫6.9%,。亞洲股市普遍收跌，日本的日經(jīng)225股指和香港的恒生指數(shù)雙雙下跌約3%,。
標準普爾500指數(shù)當日收低1.5%,。納斯達克指數(shù)跌2.1%。
在歐洲,，Euro Stoxx 50指數(shù)下跌3.1%,。倫敦富時100指數(shù)在礦業(yè)公司股價的帶動下收跌2.4%。中國經(jīng)濟放緩對這類企業(yè)造成了沉重打擊,。
對全球投資者而言,，中國是經(jīng)濟增長拼圖中關鍵的一塊。作為第二大經(jīng)濟體,，中國推動著全球大宗商品,、消費品和其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的需求。
該國政府一直試圖用經(jīng)濟刺激和提高利率的舉措來推動增長,。政府還運用充裕的外匯儲備,，來試圖控制人民幣匯率的下滑。此外,，政府還采取了一系列激進的政策舉措,，試圖支撐股市。
但最近的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),，以及隨之而來的股市動蕩讓市場開始懷疑,，上述舉動是否有效。
盡管政府采取了諸多舉措,，中國的制造業(yè)還是一直穩(wěn)步收縮了10個月,。財新發(fā)布的12月采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)下降到了48.2，明顯低于預期且低于11月的數(shù)字,。在這項指數(shù)里,，低于50的數(shù)字意味著收縮。
世界各地的大宗商品生產(chǎn)商對中國的需求尤其感到擔憂,，它們業(yè)已受到該國經(jīng)濟放緩的拖累,。周一，英美資源集團(Anglo American)股價收市下挫近7%,，嘉能可(Glencore)股價則下挫5.8%,。
人民幣的貶值壓力進一步加大了投資者的擔憂。
由于中國經(jīng)濟乏力,，中國企業(yè)和個人紛紛在海外尋找機遇,，資金外流給人民幣匯率構(gòu)成壓力,。此外，美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)提高利率的舉動也讓局面更加復雜,，因為這樣一來將資金兌換為美元就更有吸引力了,。
盡管中國央行發(fā)出信號，表示愿意讓人民幣走軟,，但它仍需控制下滑的幅度,，否則就會讓市場感到驚慌。周一,，央行將人民幣匯率設定在了2011年5月以來的最低水平,。
“中國人民銀行在讓人民幣匯率走向完全靈活的過程中，需要很謹慎,，”澳新銀行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟學家劉利剛表示,。“不能讓市場認定人民幣一定會走向貶值。如果我們那樣做,，就會遭遇去年下半年那種失控的局面,。”
政府穩(wěn)定股價的方案也促進了股市的拋售。
周一生效的一項新規(guī)則要求,，藍籌股組成的滬深300指數(shù)在一個交易日內(nèi)下跌5%時,，內(nèi)地主要股市就要暫停交易。這種熔斷機制周一就被觸發(fā)了,，導致交易暫停,。
分析人士表示，由于發(fā)生交易暫停,，投資者之后再接著拋售股票,，就導致當日交易終止。由于交易已經(jīng)終止,，如果投資者繼續(xù)緊張,，可能就意味著未來會發(fā)生更多損失,。
一則有效期為半年的禁令將于本周末到期,，該指令禁止大股東減持中國上市公司的股票。去年夏天頒布這條禁令的意圖是穩(wěn)定股價,。但現(xiàn)在,，它可能產(chǎn)生了負面的效果，讓那些持股較少的股東在大股東之前拋售,。
交銀國際(Bank of Communications International)首席策略師洪灝預測,，2016年開局不利的勢頭可能會繼續(xù)下去。
“波動往往會引發(fā)進一步波動,。蔓延到其他資產(chǎn)種類的可能性很大,，”他說,。“鑒于我們經(jīng)歷了如此劇烈的波動，目前還遠遠沒有見底,，尤其是現(xiàn)在基本面看起來很糟糕,。”
Stocks worldwide tumbled in the first trading day of 2016, as fresh fears about a slowdown in China’s economy ignited concerns about global growth.
The sell-off started in Asia on Monday, triggered by weak manufacturing data for China and continued weakness in the country’s currency. The turmoil spread to Europe and the United States, where the escalation of Middle East tensions added to market jitters.
Global investors have been watching China warily for months, as they grow increasingly concerned about the country’s economic outlook. Last summer, a slump in the country’s once highflying market and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese renminbi set off turbulence around the world.
The same themes are carrying over into 2016. A report on Monday showed that the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted again. The Chinese renminbi looked shaky.
But there is a new twist to investors’ anxieties. Measures to help steady stocks that were put in place after last year’s market turmoil are exacerbating the sell-off in China.
“This will be the theme for the year,” said Devendra Joshi, an HSBC Asia equity strategist. “There will be more volatility.”
Few markets escaped the mess.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 6.9 percent on Monday. Asian stocks broadly were down, with the Nikkei 225-share index in Japan and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong both finishing the day about 3 percent lower.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off 1.5 percent for the day. The Nasdaq was down 2.1 percent.
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 3.1 percent. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent, pulled down by shares of mining companies that were hit hard by China’s slowdown.
For global investors, China is a critical piece of the growth puzzle. As the second-largest economy, China drives demand around the world in commodities, consumer goods and other sectors.
The government has been trying to increase growth through stimulus measures and interest rate increases. It has tried to control the slide in the renminbi, by tapping its vast pool of foreign currency reserves. And it has moved aggressively to prop up the stock market with a series of policy actions.
But the latest economic data — and stock market tumult that followed — cast doubts on whether those efforts are working.
Despite the government’s moves, Chinese manufacturing has been steadily contracting for 10 straight months. The Caixin purchasing managers’ index for December, compiled by the market data firm Markit, fell to 48.2, well below expectations and lower than the reading in November. Any rating below 50 indicates a contraction.
Chinese demand is particular worrisome for commodity producers around the world, which have been hurt by the country’s economic slowdown. On Monday, Anglo American’s shares closed down about 7 percent, while Glencore’s were down 5.8 percent.
The pressure on the renminbi is further feeding investors’ concerns.
As the Chinese economy pulls back, the country’s companies and individuals have been looking for opportunities overseas, outflows that have weighed on the renminbi. The situation is complicated by the United States Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates, which makes it more attractive to keep money in dollars.
While China’s central bank has signaled it is willing to allow the currency to weaken, it must also control the slide, otherwise it risks spooking the markets. On Monday, the central bank set the renminbi at its lowest level since May 2011.
“The People’s Bank of China needs to be careful while making a fully flexible exchange rate,” said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “It cannot create a one-way bet for renminbi depreciation. If they were to do that, we would run into an out-of-control scenario like we saw in the second half of last year.”
The government’s stock stabilization plan is also playing into the market sell-off.
A new rule, which went into effect on Monday, suspends trading in the major mainland markets when the CSI 300 index of blue-chip shares falls 5 percent during a session. The circuit breaker kicked in Monday, triggering a temporary halt.
Analysts indicate that the suspension might have ledinvestors to later dump shares, which then brought on a halt for the day. Since trading was halted, it could mean more losses ahead, if investors remain nervous.
Another measure, a six-month ban on major shareholders’ offloading stocks in Chinese-listed companies, expires at the end of this week. The policy was imposed to stabilize share prices last summer. But now it could be having the reverse effect, leading those with smaller holdings to sell before larger shareholders do.
Hao Hong, chief strategist at the Bank of Communications International, predicted that the tough start to 2016 could continue.
“Volatility tends to beget volatility. It will more likely than not spill over to other asset classes,” he said. “Given we had such dramatic volatility, it’s really too early to see the bottom, especially now that the fundamentals are looking so ugly.”
