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每年,，我都會(huì)從風(fēng)投資本家的角度做出一系列預(yù)測(cè),，目的是對(duì)來(lái)年進(jìn)行務(wù)實(shí)的展望和預(yù)測(cè)。許多人都在談?wù)撆菽?，各行各業(yè)的企業(yè)都在不斷迅速擴(kuò)張和創(chuàng)新,。在這種情況下，我對(duì)將在2015年產(chǎn)生重大影響的五大趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),，具體如下。
1. 物聯(lián)網(wǎng)將不再那么側(cè)重于“物”：2015年屬于軟件,，而不是硬件,。去年，硬件領(lǐng)域的并購(gòu)活動(dòng)熱火朝天,；但我預(yù)計(jì),，明年物聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)將轉(zhuǎn)移至軟件行業(yè)。我還認(rèn)為,，硬件物聯(lián)網(wǎng)在很大程度上終將轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐环N商品,。智能手表領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了這樣的情況，蘋果公司（Apple）,、FitBit和其他一些制造商都在重點(diǎn)關(guān)注類似的功能和產(chǎn)品的商品化,。對(duì)于2015年，我的預(yù)測(cè)是物聯(lián)網(wǎng)軟件和服務(wù)將占據(jù)中央舞臺(tái),。
2.在線教育的價(jià)值將逐步上升：在線教育正處于真正的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),，而且將加速發(fā)展。就在這個(gè)月,，斯坦福商學(xué)院（Stanford’s Graduate School of Business）的在線教育投資邁上了一個(gè)新臺(tái)階——該學(xué)院針對(duì)企業(yè)高管推出了一門完全通過(guò)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)教授的課程,。市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Global Industry Analyst估算，2015年在線教育市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模將達(dá)到1070億美元,，這個(gè)數(shù)字在短短三年之內(nèi)翻了一番,。許多老牌教育機(jī)構(gòu)現(xiàn)在都推出了網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程，Udemy*,、Coursera,、Lynda和PluralSight等剛剛涉足這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)則借助創(chuàng)新模式取得了難以置信的發(fā)展,。即使這些公司的估值上升到“獨(dú)角獸”級(jí)別（10億美元）并以更快的速度增長(zhǎng)，我也不會(huì)感到意外,。
3.新一代網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)值將超過(guò)蘋果公司：Marketplaces 2.0主題將在風(fēng)投界大行其道,。估值極高的公司，比如P2P融資平臺(tái)LendingClub*（36億美元）,、房屋租賃網(wǎng)站Airbnb（4月份估值100億美元）和訂餐網(wǎng)站Grubhub（4月份估值19億美元）,，都已進(jìn)行了大規(guī)模融資。Minted*和Udemy等新生力量已經(jīng)有能力挑戰(zhàn)Craigslist和eBay等老一代網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場(chǎng),，并成為后者真正的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,。我相信，包括Etsy,、LendingClub,、Udemy、Minted,、Grubhub,、Zillow和Airbnb在內(nèi)所有主要網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)的市值將在5年內(nèi)接近甚至超過(guò)現(xiàn)在的蘋果公司——這還沒(méi)有把阿里巴巴集團(tuán)（Alibaba）計(jì)算在內(nèi)。這種態(tài)勢(shì)將催生Marketplaces 2.0時(shí)代,，從而提高風(fēng)投回報(bào)水平并改善就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況,。
4.納斯達(dá)克走勢(shì)將趨平……這沒(méi)關(guān)系：2014年，投資者們?cè)谧约旱牟┛屠锎笳勌卣劶{斯達(dá)克指數(shù)（NASDAQ index）,，主題是“泡沫”,。實(shí)際上，對(duì)于2015年,，我認(rèn)為該指數(shù)的走勢(shì)將相對(duì)平穩(wěn),，甚至可能略有下跌。不過(guò),，2015年的真正問(wèn)題在于市場(chǎng)波動(dòng),。這種司空見(jiàn)慣的現(xiàn)象對(duì)早期風(fēng)投不會(huì)有很大影響，但可能會(huì)降低市場(chǎng)對(duì)潛在首發(fā)上市公司的熱情,。盡管如此,，一些不錯(cuò)的企業(yè)仍將在2015年開(kāi)展首次公開(kāi)募股，只是上市的門檻會(huì)很高,。在我看來(lái),，這是一件好事，它能以非常溫和的方式壓縮人們所認(rèn)為的資產(chǎn)泡沫,，這要比泡沫徹底破裂好得多,。雖然人們可能認(rèn)為此舉將帶來(lái)不利影響，但我覺(jué)得這是2015年的一個(gè)有利因素,，而且可能是保持高質(zhì)量IPO市場(chǎng)健康和穩(wěn)健的必要條件,。
5.印度將回歸人們的視野,，巴西將達(dá)不到目標(biāo)：對(duì)國(guó)際和新興市場(chǎng)風(fēng)投來(lái)說(shuō)，2015年將屬于印度,。過(guò)去幾年中,，巴西、俄羅斯,、印度和中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)和成熟都非常引人注目,，其中一些公司還在2014年首發(fā)上市。阿里巴巴當(dāng)然證明了中國(guó)在這方面的成就,。印度的大選結(jié)果非常有利,，應(yīng)該有助于提振市場(chǎng)信心，并讓印度在2015年繁榮發(fā)展,。很多不錯(cuò)的印度科技企業(yè)都將利用這一有利環(huán)境,。可以關(guān)注的公司有Flipkart,、Snapeal,、Quikr*和Yatra*。另一方面,，巴西在總統(tǒng)選舉和政治局勢(shì)方面就不像印度那么幸運(yùn),。我預(yù)測(cè)2015年巴西將陷入困境。同時(shí),，今后幾年印度可能出現(xiàn)一些重大IPO。因此,，國(guó)際風(fēng)投界對(duì)印度的關(guān)注程度可能重新有所提升,。
總之，2015年對(duì)關(guān)鍵地區(qū)和行業(yè)的發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)很重要,。不過(guò),，如果企業(yè)無(wú)力應(yīng)對(duì)震蕩所帶來(lái)的影響，那么市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)和泡沫論有可能讓企業(yè)在2015年一籌莫展,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
塞爾吉奧o蒙薩爾維是硅谷風(fēng)投公司Norwest Venture Partners的合伙人,，專注于投資早期以及成長(zhǎng)型電子商務(wù)、消費(fèi)型軟件即服務(wù),、消費(fèi)金融和教育科技公司,。本文中標(biāo)注*的公司則表示該公司獲得了Norwest Venture Partners的投資。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
Each year I compile a list of predictions from a venture capitalist perspective—with the goal of providing a practical look into what to expect in the year ahead. With a lot of talk around a bubble and with companies in all sectors continuing rapid-scale and innovation, below are five mega-trends I anticipate will make a big impact in 2015.
1. The Internet-of-Things will be less about the things:In 2015, it will be about the software, not the hardware. Last year we saw feverish M&A activity in hardware but, next year, I expect to see the IoT battleground shift to software. I also predict that hardware IoT will prove out to become much more of a commodity. We already are seeing some of this played out in the smartwatch world with Apple AAPL -0.07% ,FitBit and others focused on matching features and commoditized offerings. In 2015, I expect IoT software and services to take center stage.
2. online education will graduate to higher valuations:online is at a true inflection point and will accelerate. Just this month, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business took its investment in online education to a whole new level by announcing that a new program for company executives will be delivered entirely by way of the Internet. According to Global Industry Analyst, online education in 2015 will reach $107 billion, which will represent a doubling in just three years. There are many incumbent institutions now offering online curriculum, and several newer companies with innovative models making incredible progress like Udemy*, Coursera, Lynda and PluralSight. I wouldn’t be surprised if these garnered “unicorn” valuations and grew even faster.
3. New generation of marketplaces will surpass value of Apple:“Marketplaces 2.0” is a theme that will thrive as a mega-venture category. We witnessed major financing including sky-high valuations from LendingClub* ($3.6 billion), Airbnb ($10 billion in April) and Grubhub ($1.9 billion in April). Emerging marketplaces like Minted and Udemy are now real contenders capable of challenging the last generation of marketplaces like Craigslist and eBay. I believe that within just five years, the public valuations of all major online marketplaces like Etsy, LendingClub, Udemy, Minted*, Grubhub, Zillow Z -0.31% , and Airbnb will together approach and perhaps surpass Apple’s valuation today, and that is not even counting Alibaba BABA 0.03% . This dynamic will give way to the birth of the “Marketplaces 2.0” era, which could drive venture returns and improve employment markets.
4. The NASDAQ willflatline… and that’s okay:In 2014 the NASDAQ index created a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a “Bubble.” For 2015, I actually expect the NASDAQ to be relatively flat and may even be slightly lower. However, the real issue we will face in 2015 is volatility. This lackluster performance in 2015 will not affect early-stage venture as much, but it may put a more moderate tone to potential IPO’s. Having said that, great companies will continue to IPO in 2015 but the bar will be high. I see this as a very nice and gentle way to let “air out” of a perceived asset bubble, and much better than having a complete burst. While this may be viewed as negative, I view this as a positive in 2015 and perhaps necessary to keep a healthy and robust market of high-quality IPO’s going.
5. Bollywood is back; Brazil misses the goal:For international and emerging market ventures, 2015 will be the year of India. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all had been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and we saw some of those hit the IPO market in 2014. Alibaba certainly proved that for China. India had a very positive election, which should bolster confidence and allow the country to thrive in 2015. There are many great technology companies there that will take advantage of this positive landscape. Companies like Flipkart, Snapeal, Quikr* and Yatra* are companies to watch. On the other hand, Brazil was not as lucky as India in terms of its Presidential election and political landscape. I predict that Brazil will struggle in the coming year. Meanwhile, we could potentially see some major India IPO’s in the coming years. As a result, there will be some increased and renewed attention on India from the global venture community.
Overall, 2015 will be an important year for progress in key geographies and sectors. However, volatility and talk of bubbles will make this a potentially difficult year for those who may not have the stomach for fluctuations.
Sergio Monsalve (@vcserge) is a partner with Norwest Venture Partners, wher he focuses on early-stage and growth investments in e-commerce, consumerized SaaS, consumer finance and educational technologies. Companies marked with * in this post are NVP portfolio companies.
