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這大概就是“鴿子”鳴叫時的聲音。當美聯(lián)儲(Fed)最終宣布本月不會升高目標利率時,，人們沒有感到太大驚訝,。令人驚訝的是美聯(lián)儲不加息的理由，而且這意味著投資者的關注焦點將更加迫切地移向中國,。
期貨市場已顯示,，上漲機會已下降到只有30％左右。這大部分是因為今年夏季中國對全球市場的沖擊,，市場普遍認為北京方面對股市下跌的反應,，以及允許人民幣貶值的決定都很糟糕，同時有越來越多的證據表明中國經濟嚴重放緩。
最令人意外且不安的是,，美聯(lián)儲在其官方聲明中對此毫不避諱,，美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)在隨后的新聞發(fā)布會上也表達了這一觀點。出于顯而易見的外交原因,，美聯(lián)儲此前從未提及過中國,。但此次美聯(lián)儲仍盡可能明確表示正是由于中國的情況，導致自己按兵不動,，且可能保持下去,。
新聞發(fā)布會上最能說明問題的一句話是：“最近全球經濟和金融發(fā)展可能會對經濟活動有所抑制，且可能在短期內進一步下調通脹壓力,。”這句話無人可反駁,。
市場反應表明，美聯(lián)儲已成功表現(xiàn)出“鴿派”立場——對通脹采取寬容態(tài)度,，甚至超出預期,。美元下跌近1%，尤其受加息因素影響,，短期債券收益率大幅下跌,。
至于聯(lián)邦基金期貨市場，今年年底上升幾率已略低于50%,，今年年初時其上升幾率曾達到95%,。交易商用該市場來賭利率何時上升。
最令人困惑的是股市的反應,。美聯(lián)儲公布消息時,，離收盤還有兩個小時，對忙碌的交易應不會造成多少影響,。但令人驚訝的是,，標普500(S&P 500)竟以下跌報收。而從其他市場的行動來看,，美聯(lián)儲的決定本該是支持股價上升的,。
這可能是因為美聯(lián)儲對國際形勢的坦誠，產生了令人擔憂的暗示,，即美聯(lián)儲無法控制自己的命運?，F(xiàn)在美聯(lián)儲的命運不僅取決于美國經濟和市場數(shù)據，還取決于地球另一端一個經濟體的活動,。如果中國經濟繼續(xù)放緩,，繼而輸出通縮影響，那么美聯(lián)儲有可能繼續(xù)將美國利率維持在0,。
人們還有種感覺,，即外國事件可能幫助做了貨幣緊縮的工作,。中國持續(xù)很久的外匯儲備積累——德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)在最近的一篇報告中將此稱為“大積累”——正趨于結束。全球外匯儲備在長期增長之后開始下降,。
在長期拋售外匯儲備以提振人民幣兌美元匯率之后,，中國于今年8月允許人民幣貶值。
在過去十年里,，可以說是外儲積累才讓美國利率保持在低位,。由艾倫格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)執(zhí)掌的美聯(lián)儲曾多次提高利率，但未能推升支持信貸市場的長期債券收益率,，也未能避免一場最終災難性的信貸泡沫,。格林斯潘本人認為這是一個“謎”——許多人相信，這是由中國人大量買入美國債券推動的,，它壓低了美國國債收益率,。
如果中國經濟放緩現(xiàn)在意味著，它將不得不開始拋售部分持有的美國國債,，至少有可能帶來適得其反的效果,。直接拋售債券推升收益率。與此同時,，與直覺不符的是,，外儲積累和美元之間存在明顯關聯(lián)。
在外儲管理機構積累美元的時候,，他們往往會多樣化外儲幣種，比如歐元,。這削弱了美元,。因此當投資者更密切關注中國的時候，中國經濟放緩阻擾美國加息的風險可能被其拋售外匯儲備的影響所抵消——拋售外儲將會推升美元和美國國債收益率,，同時實現(xiàn)一些加息才會實現(xiàn)的效果,。（中國進出口網）
This is what it sounds like when doves cry. By the time the Federal Reserve announced that its target interest rates would not, after all, be rising this month, it came as little surprise. But its reasoning did, and means that investors’ focus will move ever more urgently towards China.
Futures markets implied that the chance of a rise had dropped to only about 30 per cent. This was largely because of the shocks from China over the summer, as Beijing was widely held to botch its reaction to a stock market fall and its decision to allow its currency to devalue, while evidence mounted that its economy was slowing seriously.
What was surprising, and disconcerting, was that the Fed in its official statement, and its chair Janet Yellen in her subsequent press conference, were quite so candid about this. For obvious diplomatic reasons, China was never mentioned. But the Fed nevertheless made as clear as possible that events in China had caused it to stay its hand, and could continue to do so.
The most telling line, uncontradicted in the press conference, was: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”
Market reactions suggested that the Fed had succeeded in being even more “dovish” — lenient on inflation — than expected. The dollar dropped by almost 1 per cent while short-term bond yields, particularly exposed to rate rises, fell sharply.
As for the Fed Funds futures market, used by traders to bet on when rates will rise, the odds of an increase by the end of this year nudged just below 50 per cent. They stood at 95 per cent when the year began.
Most intriguing was the stock market. Little should be made of the hectic trading in the two hours after a Fed announcement, but it was nevertheless surprising that the S&P 500 closed down, after a decision that — judging by moves in other markets — should have supported share prices.
This may be because the Fed’s honesty about the international situation introduced the worrying implication that it is not in control of its own destiny. Now it is dependent not just on US economic and market data but on movements in an economy on the other side of the world. If China’s economy continues to slow, exporting deflation with it, then the chances are that the Fed will continue to keep US interest rates at zero.
There is also a sense in which foreign events could help do the work of monetary tightening. China’s long drawn-out accumulation of reserves — dubbed the “Great Accumulation” by Deutsche Bank in a recent report — is coming to an end. Global foreign exchange reserves, after a long period of increases, have started to decline.
China’s August devaluation came after it had spent time selling reserves to prop up its currency against the dollar.
In the last decade, reserve accumulation arguably kept US rates low. The Fed under Alan Greenspan raised rates repeatedly, but failed to push up the long-term bond yields that underpin credit markets, and failed to avert an ultimately disastrous credit bubble. Mr Greenspan himself described this as a “conundrum” — and many believed that it was driven by heavy Chinese buying of US bonds, which pushed their yields down.
If China’s slowdown now means that it will have to start to sell some of its US bonds, it is at least possible that the effect will now work in reverse. Selling bonds directly pushes up their yields. Meanwhile, counterintuitively, there has been a marked correlation between reserve accumulation and the dollar.
As reserve managers accumulate dollars, they tend to diversify them into other currencies, such as the euro. This weakens the dollar. So as investors watch China even more closely, the risk that a slowdown there thwarts a rate rise in the US could be counterbalanced by the effect of reducing its reserves, which will push up the dollar and US bond yields — and do some of the work that would have been done with a rate rise.
