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周一，銅價(jià)跌至每噸6000美元以下,，終止了5月份的漲勢(shì),。原因在于，作為全球最大的銅消費(fèi)國(guó),，中國(guó)的需求持續(xù)疲軟,。
周一，倫敦金屬交易所(LME)3個(gè)月交貨的銅價(jià)觸及每噸5985美元,。銅價(jià)較5月初已下跌了逾400美元,。
在中國(guó)，目前幾乎沒(méi)有跡象表明電纜制造商下大額訂單或進(jìn)行高額電網(wǎng)投資,，盡管傳統(tǒng)的高峰購(gòu)買(mǎi)季節(jié)已到來(lái),。
“下游需求仍很有限，我們認(rèn)為,，在基本面和信心層面尚未看到足夠或重大的恢復(fù),，”中國(guó)銀行(BoC)子公司中銀國(guó)際(BOC International)的分析師付曉表示。
分析師們預(yù)計(jì),，今年中國(guó)銅需求將增長(zhǎng)4%,，但這一預(yù)測(cè)的前提是，依據(jù)政府方面公布的開(kāi)支計(jì)劃,，銅在電網(wǎng)投資上的使用量相當(dāng)可觀,。
中國(guó)金屬咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)——上海有色金屬網(wǎng)(SMM)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年4月電網(wǎng)投資下降了8.65%,。該機(jī)構(gòu)表示,，今年頭4個(gè)月，中國(guó)完成電網(wǎng)投資866億元人民幣,，為全年計(jì)劃投資額的20%,。去年，電網(wǎng)計(jì)劃投資額僅完成了88.7%,。
4月和5月,，上期所(SHFE)所追蹤的倉(cāng)庫(kù)的銅庫(kù)存有所減少，這被當(dāng)做是需求改善的標(biāo)志,。但分析師認(rèn)為,，需求或許也沒(méi)有流向最終用戶。
“就2015年年中的市場(chǎng)心理而言,，中國(guó)需求狀況的演變?nèi)允且粋€(gè)至關(guān)重要的因素,，5月份沒(méi)有任何微觀或宏觀因素表明中國(guó)需求態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)生好轉(zhuǎn)，”渣打(Standard Chartered)在一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
Copper fell below $6,000 on Monday, bringing a halt to a rally in May, on continued weak demand in China, the biggest consumer of the metal.
Prices for three-month delivery on the London metal Exchange touched $5,985 on Monday. The metal has fallen more than $400 from its price at the beginning of May.
There are few signs of strong orders for copper in China by cable makers and for power grid investment, despite the arrival of the traditional peak buying season.
“The downstream demand is still fairly limited, we don’t see sufficient or meaningful recovery in terms of fundamentals and sentiment has started to turn,” said Xiao Fu, an analyst at BOC International, a unit of Bank of China.
Analysts expect China’s copper demand to grow by 4 per cent this year, yet that figure is predicated on considerable use in power grid investment, based on announced government spending plans.
Power grid investment fell by 8.65 per cent in April, according to SMM, a China-based metals consultancy. In the first four months, China completed Rmb86.6bn of grid investment, 20 per cent of the planned amount for the year, it said. Last year, only 88.7 per cent of grid investment was completed.
A fall in copper stocks in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange in April and May, which was taken as a sign of better demand, may also not have gone to end users, according to analysts.
“The evolution of China’s demand conditions remains the crucial issue for sentiment towards the complex in mid-2015, and neither the micro nor macro evidence for May suggests an improvement in this dynamic,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
