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美元的飆漲預(yù)計(jì)本周將給美國的一些大型跨國企業(yè)造成沖擊,，原因是有逾五分之一的標(biāo)普500 (S&P 500)指數(shù)成份股企業(yè)將陸續(xù)發(fā)布明顯受到美元升值9%影響的季報(bào)。
將于周五前發(fā)布季報(bào)的企業(yè)包括IBM,、通用汽車(General Motors),、聯(lián)合技術(shù)(United Technologies)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald's)等巨型藍(lán)籌企業(yè),。
標(biāo)普指數(shù)今年以來僅上漲1.1%,，投資者擔(dān)心多家企業(yè)可能會步通用電氣(GE)和菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)后塵，這兩家公司上周均表示美元走強(qiáng)導(dǎo)致其首季度收入減少近10億美元,。通用電氣表示,，匯率變動使其利潤減少1.2億美元；菲利普莫里斯表示,，這一因素使其“公司營業(yè)利潤”(operating companies income)減少5.85億美元,。
貝萊德(BlackRock)全球首席投資策略師拉斯•凱斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示，人們現(xiàn)在又開始擔(dān)心希臘會爆發(fā)新的危機(jī),，美國最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也令人失望，不過,，企業(yè)利潤很可能將成為今年驅(qū)動美股的一支關(guān)鍵力量,。
他表示：“就2015年而言，決定性因素將是利潤情況,、以及企業(yè)能否克服美元走強(qiáng)的影響,。”
迄今為止發(fā)布的財(cái)報(bào)證明，人們最近對不斷下跌的能源價(jià)格和不斷走強(qiáng)的美元的擔(dān)憂是有道理的,，這兩者已導(dǎo)致一些人對企業(yè)利潤預(yù)期做出金融危機(jī)以來幅度最大的下調(diào),。
FactSet預(yù)計(jì)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成份股企業(yè)首季度利潤將下降4%,，收入將減少3%,。但它預(yù)計(jì)那些只有不到一半銷售額在美國取得的企業(yè)，利潤和收入都將下降10%,。
去年10月末至今年3月中,，美元指數(shù)（該指數(shù)衡量美元相對一籃子貨幣的匯率）攀升15%。
歐元相對美元出現(xiàn)自前者1999年誕生以來最大幅度的季度下跌,，許多策略師急忙將其所預(yù)期的美元與歐元實(shí)現(xiàn)平價(jià)的日期向前調(diào)整,，盡管較差的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已緩和了這一預(yù)期。（中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
A surging dollar is expected to hit some of the largest US multinationals this week, as more than a fifth of S&P 500 companies report results for a quarter marked by a 9 per cent jump in their domestic currency.
Blue-chip behemoths such as IBM, General Motors, United Technologies, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are among those set to release earnings by Friday.
With the S&P up only 1.1 per cent this year, investors are concerned that several companies could emulate General Electric and Philip Morris, which each said last week that the dollar reduced their revenues by nearly $1bn in the first quarter. GE said currency swings hit profits by $120m, and Philip Morris reported a $585m hit to “operating companies income”.
Fears of a new Greek crisis are resurfacing and US economic data has disappointed of late, but corporate earnings are likely to be a key driving force for US equities this year, said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at Blackrock.
“For 2015, it will come down to earnings and whether companies can overcome a higher dollar,” he said.
Earnings reports so far have validated recent concerns over falling energy prices and a rising dollar that have led to the largest downgrade of earnings estimates since the financial crisis.
FactSet expects first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 to decline 4 per cent and revenues to dro 3 per cent. But it expects both earnings and revenues to be down 10 per cent for companies that generate less than half their sales in the US.
Between the end of October and mid-March, the dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of its peers – climbed 15 per cent .
The euro suffered its biggest quarterly decline against the dollar since it was created in 1999, and many strategists hastily brought forward their target date for the dollar reaching parity with its transatlantic partner, although that expectation has been tempered by poor US economic data.
