
歐洲央行9日正式開(kāi)啟量化寬松貨幣政策。對(duì)其實(shí)施效果和前景,,多數(shù)分析人士認(rèn)為,,短期將導(dǎo)致歐元下跌利于歐洲出口,但要真正改善歐洲疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)還需扎實(shí)實(shí)施的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,。
據(jù)歐洲央行的計(jì)劃,,從3月起將每月購(gòu)買(mǎi)600億歐元政府與私人債券,該政策預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)至2016年9月底,。受此影響,,歐元持續(xù)下探。
歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲弱是歐洲央行推出量化寬松政策的直接原因,。目前歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率不足1%,,主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體法國(guó)、意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)接近零增長(zhǎng),,多個(gè)國(guó)家已陷入通縮局面,。因此,通過(guò)寬松貨幣政策刺激增長(zhǎng)和消費(fèi)是歐洲央行的政策目標(biāo),。
在評(píng)價(jià)歐洲央行寬松貨幣政策時(shí),,歐洲國(guó)際政治經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心主任弗雷德里克·埃里克松說(shuō),該政策十分必要,,是修正過(guò)去幾年“保守”貨幣政策的良機(jī),。他說(shuō):“購(gòu)債計(jì)劃的實(shí)施有利于短期內(nèi)化解歐洲低通脹局面,防止通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)蔓延,,同時(shí)也能拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率,。”
然而部分專(zhuān)家對(duì)歐洲量化寬松政策前景并不樂(lè)觀。中國(guó)外匯投資研究院院長(zhǎng)譚雅玲表示,,執(zhí)行寬松政策過(guò)程中會(huì)加劇各國(guó)矛盾,,各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異會(huì)進(jìn)一步拉大。她說(shuō):“德國(guó)這樣的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家發(fā)展會(huì)越來(lái)越好,,希臘,、塞浦路斯這樣的國(guó)家會(huì)越來(lái)越差,這會(huì)激化歐元區(qū)分裂,。如果不解決機(jī)制問(wèn)題,、體制問(wèn)題和市場(chǎng)問(wèn)題,印鈔票是沒(méi)有用的,。”
歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)要實(shí)現(xiàn)完全復(fù)蘇單靠量化寬松政策是不夠的,。埃里克松指出,全面實(shí)施結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,、提高區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,,才是歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
European Central Bank on the 9th Mar. officially introduced the quantitative easing monetary policy. As for the results and prospects of its implementation, most analysts believe that this policy will result in euro decline and will be favor of short-term exports from Europe, but a solid implementation of structural reforms will be needed if the weak economic is improved.
According to the ECB's plan, it will buy 60 billion euros of government and private bonds per month from March to the end of September 2016. Thus, the euro continued to decline.
Continued weakness in the European economy is the direct cause of the ECB's introduction of quantitative easing. Currently economy growth is less than 1% in the euro area economy, in the major economies France and Italy, the economy growth is close to zero, economic growth in many countries has fallen into deflation. Thus, to stimulate growth and consumption by quantitative easing monetary policy is the ECB's policy objectives.
In evaluating the ECB easing monetary policy, director of the International Centre for European Economic Research politics Frederick Eriksson said the policy is necessary, and it’s an opportunity to amend the "conservative" monetary policy in the past few years. He said, "The purchase of debt is in favor of implementation of the plan to resolve the situation in Europe and low inflation in the short term, to prevent the spread of the risk of deflation, but also to stimulate economic growth."
However, some experts are not optimistic on the European QE outlook. President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute Tan Yaling said, quantitative easing monetary policy will intensify contradictions among the countries, the economic disparities among countries will be widened. She added, "Developed Countries like Germany will be getting better and better, countries like Greece and Cyprus will become increasingly poor, thus intensifying the eurozone splitting. If the mechanism, institutional and market issues aren’t solved, there’s no use to print money. "
To achieve full recovery of the European economy QE alone is not enough. Eriksson pointed out that the full implementation of structural reforms to improve the competitiveness of the region, is the key to long-term economic growth in Europe.