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大宗商品暴跌行情正接近一個(gè)難看的新的里程碑，彭博大宗商品指數(shù)(Bloomberg Commodity Index)中,，價(jià)格下跌的大宗商品種類超過自金融危機(jī)以來的任何年份。
今年迄今,，在彭博大宗商品指數(shù)的22種期貨合約中,，有21種合約價(jià)格下跌，跌幅從蔗糖的6%,，到天然氣的驚人50%,。上一次出現(xiàn)如此多的大宗商品價(jià)格下跌是在2008年。
在截至上周五的一年里,，彭博大宗商品指數(shù)已累計(jì)下跌26%,，即將進(jìn)入連續(xù)5年下跌的最糟糕行情。
多種大宗商品價(jià)格紛紛下跌突顯出,，從糧食種植者到巴西和沙特阿拉伯等大宗商品出口國,，生產(chǎn)者的痛苦正在蔓延,。
價(jià)格繼續(xù)下跌可能會傳導(dǎo)至消費(fèi)者價(jià)格，并阻礙美聯(lián)儲(Fed)明年繼續(xù)加息的計(jì)劃,。
彭博大宗商品指數(shù)是使用最普遍的兩個(gè)大宗商品指數(shù)之一,，數(shù)百億美元的資產(chǎn)跟蹤這一指數(shù)。根據(jù)加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)的數(shù)據(jù),，今年10月,，大宗商品投資者持有2195億美元資產(chǎn)，而峰值時(shí)曾超過4000億美元,。
全球最大大宗商品交易商之一Trafigura首席財(cái)務(wù)官克里斯托弗薩爾蒙(Christophe Salmon)表示：“我們看到投資者對于大宗商品這一資產(chǎn)類別的態(tài)度發(fā)生了根本變化,。”該公司旗下的Galena Asset Management決定在今年結(jié)束后逐步終止其旗艦金屬對沖基金。
上月,，美國期貨監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)宣布,，由于“關(guān)注度較低”，將停止公布有關(guān)大宗商品指數(shù)投資的數(shù)據(jù),。這一跡象表明,，大宗商品不再受到青睞。
眾多大宗商品期貨合約價(jià)格下跌的一個(gè)原因是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,，中國是從銅到大豆等多種大宗商品需求增長的推動力,。美元升值令彭博指數(shù)涵蓋的大宗商品價(jià)格承壓，因?yàn)樗鼈兪且悦涝?jì)價(jià)的,。
特殊因素也起到了一定作用,，瘦肉豬價(jià)格下跌是因?yàn)樯i產(chǎn)量增加所致,，天然氣價(jià)格則因美國城市天氣暖和而下跌,。
棉花是彭博指數(shù)中唯一一個(gè)今年價(jià)格出現(xiàn)上漲的品種，由于全球產(chǎn)量減少1540萬包,，棉花期貨價(jià)格溫和上漲3.6%,。一些人認(rèn)為這是其他大宗商品的一個(gè)先兆，表明長期價(jià)格下跌已導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)縮減,。
美國大宗商品投資機(jī)構(gòu)Logic Advisors的羅恩勞森(Ron Lawson)表示：“我們認(rèn)為,，2016年第一季度將成為大宗商品市場的底部。棉花價(jià)格正傳達(dá)出這一訊息,。”
今年初,，分析人士曾認(rèn)為，大宗商品價(jià)格再次表現(xiàn)出相互獨(dú)立性,，這給那些能夠發(fā)掘單個(gè)市場特性的專業(yè)投資者提供了機(jī)會,。
結(jié)果幾乎所有大宗商品期貨價(jià)格都是一個(gè)走勢：下跌。
大宗商品投資管理公司SummerHaven合伙人庫爾特納爾遜(Kurt Nelson)表示：“如果你5年前曾對大宗商品懷有疑慮的話,，那么你現(xiàn)在可能還沒有找到證據(jù)來說服你改變想法,。”（中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
The commodity rout is approaching an ugly new milestone, with losses across more members of a leading benchmark than in any year since the financial crisis.
All but one of the 22 futures contracts in the Bloomberg Commodity Index are now lower in the year to date, with negative returns ranging from minus 6 per cent for sugar to a staggering 50 per cent plunge for natural gas. The last year so many constituents fell was 2008.
Down 26 per cent in the year to last Friday, the index is headed for the worst of five straight years of declines.
The breadth of the washout across a varied basket of commodities highlights how pain has spread for producers from grain farmers to commodity exporting nations such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
Continuing declines could feed into consumer prices and jar the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise US interest rates further next year.
The Bloomberg index is one of the two most widely used commodity indices, tracked by tens of billions in assets. Commodity investors held $219.5bn as of October, according to RBC Capital Markets, down from more than $400bn at their peak.
“We have seen a fundamental change in investor attitude towards commodities as an asset class,” said Christophe Salmon, chief financial officer of Trafigura, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders. Trafigura’s Galena Asset Management division has decided to wind down its flagship metals hedge fund after year-end.
In a sign of commodities’ disfavour, last month the US futures regulator declared it would stop publishing data on commodity index investment due to “a low level of interest”.
One reason why many futures have dropped is the slowdown in China, the motor of demand growth for commodities from copper to soyabeans. A stronger dollar has pressured commodities in the index as they are priced in the US currency.
Unique factors have also played a part, with lean hogs softening due to expanding pork production and natural gas suffering from warm weather in US cities.
Cotton is the only Bloomberg index member that is up this year, gaining a modest 3.6 per cent as the world harvest shrank by 15.4m bales. Some see it as a harbinger for other commodities as the prolonged price slide begins to cut into supplies.
“We believe we will look back at the first quarter of 2016 as the bottom for commodity markets. Cotton is telegraphing that,” said Ron Lawson of Logic Advisors, commodities investment firm.
Analysts early this year made a case that commodities were again trading independently of one another, presenting an opportunity for specialist investors able to exploit the idiosyncrasies of individual markets.
Almost all commodity futures instead moved in one direction: down.
“If you were sceptical about commodities five years ago, you probably haven’t gotten evidence to convince you to change your mind,” said Kurt Nelson, partner at SummerHaven, a commodities investment manager.
