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美國(guó)及全球股市正迎來(lái)2011年以來(lái)最糟糕的季度表現(xiàn),，令投資者恐慌的因素包括中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)政策的不確定性以及對(duì)企業(yè)盈利越來(lái)越悲觀,。
令投資者更感不安的是,，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)周二警告稱(chēng),，在過(guò)去10年盡情借款后,，發(fā)展中世界的企業(yè)倒閉數(shù)量很可能急速攀升,。
近年持續(xù)的全球牛市正面臨重大挑戰(zhàn),，除了一些板塊受大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌直接影響外，自7月起許多板塊開(kāi)始下跌,。
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500(S&P 500)指數(shù)下跌了8.5%,，創(chuàng)2011年第三季度以來(lái)最大跌幅。先前飛漲的一些板塊,，尤其是今年早些時(shí)候引領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)的生物技術(shù)和醫(yī)療保健板塊,，最近幾周顯著下跌。
標(biāo)普道瓊斯指數(shù)公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)資深指數(shù)分析師霍華德纏爾弗布拉特(Howard Silverblatt)表示：“現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題在于,，投資者是否已準(zhǔn)備好面對(duì)2011年以來(lái)的第一個(gè)下跌之年……以及自2008年的‘糟糕日子’以來(lái)最糟糕的年份,。”
全球股市也準(zhǔn)備迎來(lái)2011年以來(lái)最糟糕的季度表現(xiàn)，市值蒸發(fā)逾10萬(wàn)億美元,。富時(shí)新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)(FTSE Emerging markets index)本季度下跌超過(guò)21%,，為2011年以來(lái)最差表現(xiàn)，在21世紀(jì)最差季度中排名第五,。
投資者對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨弱的一些跡象越來(lái)越感到不安,，同時(shí)開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑美國(guó)企業(yè)的盈利前景，全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體正準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)行近10年來(lái)第一次加息,。
大宗商品板塊的持續(xù)下跌加強(qiáng)了投資者對(duì)中國(guó)需求的擔(dān)憂(yōu),。截至周二，追蹤22種大宗商品表現(xiàn)的彭博大宗商品指數(shù)(Bloomberg Commodity Index)第三季度下跌14.8%,，有可能創(chuàng)下自2008年第四季度以來(lái)最大季度跌幅。大宗商品全面下跌所涵蓋的商品包括石油,、汽油,、大豆和銅。
在另一份報(bào)告中,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)警告稱(chēng),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,，以及國(guó)內(nèi)信貸泡沫解除的組合,，意味著新興市場(chǎng)未來(lái)幾年的“前景變得陰暗得多”。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
US and global equities are heading for their worst quarterly showing since 2011, with investors rattled by China’s economic slowdown, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and growing pessimism about corporate earnings.
Adding to investors’ unease, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday warned that corporate failures are likely to jump sharply in the developing world, after a hearty borrowing binge in the past decade.
With an array of sectors slumping since the start of July, beyond those directly influenced by the rout in commodity prices, the global equity bull run of recent years is now facing a major challenge.
The S&P 500 has fallen 8.5 per cent, the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2011. Previously high-flying sectors that led the market earlier this year, notably biotech and healthcare stocks, have fallen appreciably in recent weeks.
“The question now is — are investors ready for the first down year since 2011...and the worst year since the ‘bad days’ of 2008,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
In turn global stock markets are poised for their worst quarterly showing since 2011, shedding over $10tn in value. The FTSE Emerging Index has tumbled over 21 per cent this quarter, its worst showing since 2011, and the fifth worst quarter this millennium.
Investors have become increasingly unsettled by signs of weakening global growth and are now questioning the earnings outlook for US companies as the world’s largest economy is preparing to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
The continued decline of the commodities sector has reinforced concerns over demand from China. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a basket of 22 futures contracts, was on Tuesday down 14.8 per cent for the third quarter - setting up potentially the biggest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2008. The broad declines have encompassed commodities including oil, gasoline, soybeans and copper.
In a separate report, Standard & Poor’s warned that the combination of Fed interest rate increases, the Chinese economic slowdown, and the unwinding of domestic credit bubbles meant a “much darker outlook” for emerging markets in the coming years.
