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瑞信(Credit Suisse)的數據表明,，按購買力平價計算,，總體上新興市場貨幣對美元的折價已經從2011年的40%大幅回升至逾60%。
大宗商品超級周期始于2002年,。這一超級周期已經結束而且不會再次出現,，因此，相關貨幣回落到2002年水平似乎是自然而然的,，如果不是跌得更低的話,，”布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman)新興市場貨幣策略全球主管Win Thin表示。
“在整個大宗商品熱潮期間,，每個人都說（新興國家的）基本面大好,，各國做了正確的事情。我認為我……低估了大宗商品效應,。”
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)新興市場和全球外匯策略主管丹尼爾?特南戈澤(Daniel Tenengauzer)持不同觀點,。在2002-12年大宗商品牛市期間，“許多（新興市場）經濟體都有經常賬戶盈余,，”他說,。
“它們極為嚴格地實行通脹目標制,，并增強各自的資產負債表，無論是外部的還是國內的,，因此它們在積累儲備,。”
特南戈澤說，如果大宗商品不是這些經濟體表現強勁背后的唯一因素,，大宗商品價格暴跌無法解釋新興市場貨幣的全面回調,。“（進入新興市場的）資金流引發(fā)了資源錯配。”
然而,，在他看來,，新興市場貨幣的大幅下跌不是問題。“當宏觀環(huán)境開始惡化的時候,，存在一種機制,，即疲軟的匯率。這是解決方案的一部分,，而不是一個問題,。”
Win Thin表示，墨西哥,、智利,、臺灣、波蘭,、捷克和菲律賓等國家和地區(qū)在大宗商品熱潮期間“做了正確的事情”。“它們沒有浪費所有這些錢,；它們把一些錢存起來以備不時之需,。”
他說，一些國家和地區(qū)因此避免了最糟糕的貶值,。相對于今年走強的美元,，新臺幣僅下跌2.8%，捷克克朗,、波蘭茲羅提和菲律賓比索的跌幅在5%以下,，而墨西哥比索和智利比索則出現雙位數的跌幅。
瑞信表示,，一些貨幣看上去便宜得反常,。根據瑞信對貨幣估值和債務脆弱性的分析，該行從南非,、馬來西亞和印度看到了機會,。
特南戈澤也看好印度盧比，并表示墨西哥比索和印尼盾“看起來開始變得有吸引力”,。
但他表示,，中國和巴西這兩個大型新興經濟體的貨幣依舊高估了約10%,。他說，就目前而言,，考慮到這兩個國家的重要性,，市場對這兩大經濟體的信心還將繼續(xù)拖累人們對整個新興市場的展望。（中國進出口網）
Emerging market currencies, excepting the Chinese renminbi, have given up all their gains since 2002, which marked the start of the commodities upturn, raising the question of whether the strong performance of developing economies during 2002-13 was all about commodities after all.
Data from Credit Suisse show that EM currencies at large have returned to a discount of more than 60 per cent to the dollar in purchasing power parity terms, a sharp rebound from the 40 per cent discount in 2011.
“The commodity supercycle started in 2002. That supercycle has ended and it’s not coming back, so it seems natural that we should be seeing a return to 2002 levels if not beyond,” said Win Thin, global head of EM currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “
“During this whole commodity boom, everyone was saying it’s great fundamentals [in EMs], countries doing the right thing. I think I?.?.?.?underweighted the commodity effect.”
Daniel Tenengauzer, head of EM and global FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, takes a different view. During the commodity bull market of 2002-12 “many [EM] economies were operating current account surpluses”, he says.
“They were implementing inflation-targeting regimes very strictly and strengthening their balance sheets, both external and domestic, so they were accumulating reserves.”
The commodity price slump could not explain the full retracement in EM currencies if it was not the only factor behind the upswing, Mr Tenengauzer said. “The flows of funds [into EMs] triggered resource misallocation.”
But, to Mr Tenegauzer, the slump in EM currencies is not a problem. “When the macro picture started to deteriorate there was a mechanism, a weak exchange rate. It’s part of the solution, not a problem.”
Mr Thin says some countries, such as Mexico, Chile, Taiwan, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Philippines, “were doing the right thing” during the boom years. “They didn’t waste all this money; they tucked some away for a rainy day.”
As a result, he said, some were avoiding the worst of the sell-off, with the Taiwan dollar down just 2.8 per cent against a resurgent greenback this year, and the Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Philippine peso off less than 5 per cent, though the Mexican and Chilean pesos had suffered double-digit declines.
Credit Suisse said some currencies appeared abnormally cheap. based on its analysis of currency valuations and debt vulnerability, the Swiss bank saw opportunities in South Africa, Malaysia and India.
Mr Tenengauzer also looks favourably on the India rupee, and says the Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah are “starting to look attractive”.
But he says the currencies of two largest emerging economies, China and Brazil, each remain about 10 per cent overvalued. Given their importance, sentiment towards these two giants would continue to sour the wider EM outlook for the time being, he said.
