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美元超低利率時(shí)代終結(jié)

Era of Low Interest Rates of US Dollar Ends

放大字體??縮小字體 ??瀏覽次數(shù):1649
核心提示:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)數(shù)年來(lái)把利率維持在超低水平。這可能確實(shí)幫助美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)了生機(jī),,也對(duì)華爾街起到了提振作用,,但卻并沒(méi)有解決像波特爾大橋(Portal Bridge)老化這樣的問(wèn)題,。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)數(shù)年來(lái)把利率維持在超低水平,。這可能確實(shí)幫助美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)了生機(jī),,也對(duì)華爾街起到了提振作用,,但卻并沒(méi)有解決像波特爾大橋(Portal Bridge)老化這樣的問(wèn)題,。

這座105年歷史的鐵路橋位于新澤西州北部,,數(shù)十年來(lái),它給出入紐約的通勤者造成了不少延誤,。“我們?cè)缇推诖幸蛔聵?,現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候讓它退休了,”美鐵(Amtrak)執(zhí)行副總裁斯蒂芬·加德納(Stephen Gardner)說(shuō),。該公司的列車需要經(jīng)過(guò)這座橋,。

修建新橋的費(fèi)用估計(jì)在10億美元左右,而這個(gè)數(shù)目金融市場(chǎng)可以在轉(zhuǎn)眼之間為私人企業(yè)籌集到,。然而,,盡管聯(lián)邦政府和新澤西州可以用最低利率借款,,這筆費(fèi)用依然沒(méi)有著落。

全美各地有很多這樣亟需的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,,對(duì)我們是個(gè)很好的提醒:美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)存在一些更深層次的問(wèn)題,,而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的寬松貨幣政策并沒(méi)能解決它們。

“在投資方面,,無(wú)論是公共還是私人投資,,我們都和應(yīng)有的狀況存在差距,”威廉姆·A·高爾斯頓(William A. Galston)說(shuō),。他曾是比爾·克林頓總統(tǒng)(Bill Clinton)的顧問(wèn),目前在布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)擔(dān)任高級(jí)研究員,。

高爾斯頓特別惋惜的是,,最近幾年未能組建一個(gè)由政府支持的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行。“這是錯(cuò)失良機(jī),,”他說(shuō),。

據(jù)富國(guó)銀行資本管理公司(Wells Capital Management)的詹姆斯·W·保爾森(James W. Paulsen)分析,公共投資支出在整體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中所占的份額已下降到40年代以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn),。

當(dāng)然,,政治僵局也是攔路石,讓資金無(wú)法流入旨在改善老化的道路,、橋梁和公共交通設(shè)施的政府項(xiàng)目,。但即使是在私營(yíng)部門,低成本借貸本來(lái)應(yīng)該帶來(lái)的很多好處也沒(méi)能實(shí)現(xiàn),。

近年來(lái),,企業(yè)通過(guò)各種市場(chǎng)籌集了數(shù)以萬(wàn)億計(jì)的美元,但它們投入到新業(yè)務(wù)上的資金卻相對(duì)少得可憐,。這些投資本來(lái)有可能促進(jìn)就業(yè),,提升美國(guó)公司的效率和全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

從某些方面來(lái)看,,這些都是低成本借貸時(shí)期被浪費(fèi)掉的機(jī)會(huì)——而且,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本周三的加息決議把接近于零的基準(zhǔn)利率小幅升高,雖然貸款成本起初的升幅會(huì)較小,,但這樣的機(jī)會(huì)很可能還是會(huì)被繼續(xù)浪費(fèi),。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的刺激政策在很多方面都發(fā)揮了效果。它們推動(dòng)了銀行和投資者放貸,、提升了股價(jià),,也提振了消費(fèi)者和首席執(zhí)行官們的信心。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最終恢復(fù)了元?dú)猓屖I(yè)率下降了,,汽車銷量增加了,,房?jī)r(jià)也有所回暖。

但是一些重要指標(biāo)顯示,,這些資金并沒(méi)有流向一些需要的地方。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者和分析師指出,,要改善美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展?jié)摿?,這些地方需有資金投入。

企業(yè)可能并沒(méi)有好好利用美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)慷慨提供的超低利率,。從理論上說(shuō),,低利率可以刺激企業(yè)借入資金,把它們投入到新設(shè)備和技術(shù)上,,從而提高運(yùn)營(yíng)效率,。這樣的投資能夠改善盈利能力,增加公司在全球市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。

然而自本輪大衰退以來(lái),,企業(yè)投資在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中的比例一直處于歷史低位。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息之后,,垃圾債券市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模出現(xiàn)了大幅擴(kuò)張,。發(fā)行垃圾債券的公司近來(lái)在借款上養(yǎng)成的一些習(xí)慣,顯示出投資出人意料的匱乏程度,。

用美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行的分析顯示,從2009年到今年9月,,美國(guó)公司發(fā)行這種債券所籌集的資金中,,僅有2%的收益用在了資本性支出上,。雖然該行的分析師指出,,資本性支出的數(shù)字可能無(wú)法囊括所有的投資,但從這些數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看,,通過(guò)發(fā)行債券籌集的資金中,最大的份額被用在了償還公司所欠的其他債務(wù),,以及開(kāi)展普通收購(gòu)和杠桿收購(gòu)行動(dòng)上,。

“很少被用作資本性支出,,”美銀美林負(fù)責(zé)高收益及杠桿融資策略的主管邁克爾·孔托普洛斯(Michael Contopoulos)說(shuō),。“我們覺(jué)得這是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。”

企業(yè)投資缺乏,,可能會(huì)抑制美國(guó)未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,。更高的資本性支出本可提高生產(chǎn)率。這是一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),,可以衡量出一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體用勞動(dòng)力和資金等資源可以產(chǎn)出多少東西,。但最近幾年,美國(guó)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)速度放緩,,這讓經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者頗為不安,。

矛盾的是,低利率有可能抑制了能讓企業(yè)變得更加高效的力量,。在2014年發(fā)表的一次重要演講中,,前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)、現(xiàn)任哈佛大學(xué)教授的勞倫斯·H·薩默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)列舉了日本的情況,,后者的利率在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)處在低水平,。

“在利率為零或很低的時(shí)期,借貸展期非常容易,,”他說(shuō),。“所以沒(méi)有什么壓力來(lái)對(duì)效率低下乃至變?yōu)榻┦钠髽I(yè)進(jìn)行重組。”

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)現(xiàn)在提高利率,,有可能會(huì)促使美國(guó)企業(yè)界進(jìn)入一個(gè)劇變的階段。垃圾債券市場(chǎng)最近出現(xiàn)的動(dòng)蕩顯示,,投資者認(rèn)為將出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象,,尤其是在能源行業(yè)。今天的短痛可能會(huì)帶來(lái)某種長(zhǎng)期的改變,,而這種改變將使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)變得更加強(qiáng)健,。相反地,如果銀行和債券投資者在借貸上削減太多,,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)則有可能因此受挫,。

不過(guò),盡管利率似乎正在升高,,一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者仍然表示,,還有另一種比較樂(lè)觀的可能性。

按照這一理論,,生產(chǎn)率之所以在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)后的數(shù)年里持續(xù)低下,,是因?yàn)楦呤I(yè)率打壓了勞動(dòng)力成本,從而讓企業(yè)更容易維持利潤(rùn),。“雇主在提高效率方面可能就會(huì)相當(dāng)懈怠,,”奧巴馬總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)團(tuán)隊(duì)的前成員、目前在預(yù)算與政策重點(diǎn)中心(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)任高級(jí)研究員的杰瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)說(shuō)。“因?yàn)榭梢院苋菀讖膭趧?dòng)力成本里擠出油水來(lái),。”

按照上述邏輯,,如今隨著失業(yè)率下降,企業(yè)可能要為獲得人才而展開(kāi)更多競(jìng)爭(zhēng),,這就有可能會(huì)推高員工的薪水,。面對(duì)升高的勞動(dòng)力成本,企業(yè)將不得不進(jìn)行投資,,以提高效率,。“你需要的是一個(gè)企業(yè)無(wú)法以低效率生存的經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),”伯恩斯坦說(shuō),。

然而,,隨著利率上升,美國(guó)公路和鐵路能否獲得建設(shè)資金大概依然會(huì)存在不確定性,。

如果經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),,財(cái)政壓力得到緩解,聯(lián)邦,、州和市政府可能會(huì)有更多資金進(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),,哪怕面臨著更高的借貸成本。

但一些民主黨人士期待的規(guī)??捎^的投資看起來(lái)并不會(huì)出現(xiàn),。很多共和黨人堅(jiān)稱,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施需求被過(guò)度夸大,,而且應(yīng)該由私營(yíng)部門,,而非納稅人在其中貢獻(xiàn)更多力量。

本月,,國(guó)會(huì)克服了兩黨在意識(shí)形態(tài)上的差異,,通過(guò)了一項(xiàng)金額約3000億美元的交通議案,將為公路和橋梁建設(shè)提供資金,。

這項(xiàng)議案碰巧包含一些措施,,可以使得為建設(shè)新的波特爾大橋和哈德遜地下隧道進(jìn)行的融資變得更加容易。被颶風(fēng)“桑迪”(Sandy)損壞的幾條隧道,,在今年7月曾導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的延誤,,引起一些通勤者的強(qiáng)烈抗議。

任何重建工程都會(huì)比原先計(jì)劃的時(shí)間長(zhǎng)得多,,費(fèi)用也要多得多,。但倡導(dǎo)進(jìn)行市政工程的人士認(rèn)為,盡管這項(xiàng)交通議案還是不能滿足整體需求,,但它值得鼓勵(lì),。

“我比較樂(lè)觀,已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)很大的進(jìn)步,,”美鐵公司的高管加德納說(shuō),。“作為一項(xiàng)議題,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開(kāi)始被人們重新考慮了,。”(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)

Years of ultralow interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve may have breathed life back into the economy and buoyed Wall Street. But they have not managed to solve problems like the aging Portal Bridge.

The 105-year-old railway bridge in northern New Jersey has for decades caused delays for commuters in and out of New York. “We have long desired the bridge’s replacement,” said Stephen Gardner, an executive vice president for Amtrak, whose trains use the bridge. “It’s time for it to retire.”

A replacement bridge would cost an estimated $1 billion, the sort of sum that financial markets can raise for a private corporation in the blink of an eye. Yet even though the federal government and the state of New Jersey can borrow at rock-bottom rates, the overhaul remains unfunded.

There are many such infrastructure projects needed around the country, providing a stark reminder of the deeper problems in the economy that the Fed’s easy-money policies have not been able to fix.

“We are not where we should be when it comes to investment, public or private,” said William A. Galston, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Mr. Galston in particular lamented the failure to set up a government-backed infrastructure bank in recent years. “This will go down as one of the great missed opportunities,” he said.

Public investment spending as a share of overall economic activity has fallen to lows not seen since the 1940s, according to an analysis by James W. Paulsen of Wells Capital Management.

Political impasses have, of course, restricted the flow of money into government projects aimed at improving aging roads, bridges and mass transit. But even in the private sector, many of the hoped-for benefits of low-cost borrowing have not occurred.

Corporations have tapped the markets for trillions of dollars in recent years, yet they plowed relatively little of the money into new operations. Such investments might have bolstered hiring and made American business more efficient and globally competitive.

In some ways, these are the wasted opportunities of the cheap-money years — and they may well remain squandered now that the cost of borrowing appears to be heading higher, even if the initial increases after the Fed’s decision Wednesday to move its benchmark up from close to zero will remain modest.

The Fed’s stimulus policies worked in many ways. They prompted banks and investors to lend, lifted stock prices and bolstered the confidence of consumers and chief executives. The economy eventually regained strength, causing unemployment to fall, auto sales to take off and house prices to rise somewhat.

But important indicators suggest that the money did not flow where some economists and analysts say it is needed to improve the long-term potential of the economy.

Corporations may not have made the most of the Fed’s largess. In theory, low interest rates should spur companies to borrow money that they then invest in new machines and technology that will make their operations more efficient. These investments can improve profitability and make firms more competitive in global markets.

But business investment as a percentage of gross domestic product has remained below historical levels since the Great Recession. A surprising lack of investment also shows up in the recent borrowing habits of companies that issue junk bonds, a market that ballooned after the Fed cut interest rates.

From 2009 through September of this year, United States companies issuing such bonds spent a mere 2 percent of the proceeds of those bonds on capital expenditures, or “capex,” according to an analysis of data provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The capital expenditures figures may not capture all investment, the bank’s analysts noted. Even so, the data shows that the lion’s share of bond proceeds went to pay off other debt owed by the companies and to finance acquisitions and leveraged buyouts.

“Very little of it has been used for capex,” said Michael Contopoulos, head of United States high-yield and leveraged loan strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “We think that’s a big problem.”

The lack of corporate investment may hold back the United States’ growth rate in the future. Higher capital expenditures might have bolstered productivity, a crucial economic yardstick that measures how much an economy produces with resources like labor and capital. Growth in productivity has slowed in recent years, disturbing economists.

Paradoxically, it is possible that the low interest rates have held back forces that would have made companies more efficient. In an influential speech in 2014, Lawrence H. Summers, a former Treasury Secretary and now a professor at Harvard, cited the experience of Japan, where interest rates have been low for a long time.

“In a period of zero interest rates or very low interest rates, it is very easy to roll over loans,” he said. ”And therefore there is very little pressure to restructure inefficient or even zombie enterprises.”

The Fed’s higher interest rates may now usher in a period of upheaval in corporate America. Recent turmoil in the junk bond market suggests that investors expect bankruptcies, particularly in the energy sector. And the pain today may create the sort of longer-term changes that would make the economy stronger. Conversely, if banks and bond investors cut back too much on lending, the economy could suffer.

But even as interest rates appear to be heading higher, some economists say there is an optimistic, alternative possibility.

Under this theory, productivity was weak in the years after the crisis because high unemployment kept labor costs depressed, giving companies an easy way to maintain margins. “Employers can be pretty sloppy in terms of efficiency,” said Jared Bernstein, a former member of President Obama’s economic team and now a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “It’s not hard to squeeze the heck out of labor costs.”

Now, as unemployment has fallen, companies may compete more for workers, potentially pushing up wages. Confronted with higher labor costs, companies will have no choice but to invest to become more efficient, the theory goes. “You want an economy and labor market where firms can’t afford to be inefficient,” Mr. Bernstein said.

Question marks, however, will most likely continue to hang over the country’s roads and railways as interest rates rise.

If the economy continues to grow and fiscal pressures ease, the federal government, state and cities may find more to spend on infrastructure even if they face higher borrowing costs.

But the substantial investment that some Democrats are hoping for seems improbable. Many Republicans assert that the infrastructure needs are overstated and that the private sector, rather than the taxpayer, needs to play a much greater role.

Congress overcame ideological differences this month to pass a roughly $300 billion transportation bill that provides funding for roads and bridges.

The bill happens to contain measures that could make it easier to secure funding for replacing the Portal Bridge, as well as building new tunnels under the Hudson. The existing tunnels, damaged by Hurricane Sandy, were the cause of long delays in July that caused an outcry among commuters.

Any rebuilding will take longer and cost much more than earlier plans. But advocates for public works, while saying the transportation bill falls short of the overall needs, nonetheless see reason to be encouraged.

“I’m optimistic; there’s been big strides made,” Mr. Gardner, the Amtrak official, said. “Infrastructure is starting to creep back into people’s minds as an issue.”

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