美聯(lián)儲不急于退出經(jīng)濟刺激計劃

 
華盛頓——美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve,，簡稱美聯(lián)儲）并不急于提高利率。
最近幾個月的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇保持平穩(wěn),，但美聯(lián)儲的政策制定委員會周三稱,，沒有理由改變該機構(gòu)的計劃，這相當于否決了加速退出長期刺激行動的呼吁,。
美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)在新聞發(fā)布會上稱,，“仍然有太多人想要工作卻找不到工作，太多人想要全職工作卻只能做兼職,，太多人雖然沒有在找工作,，但如果勞動力市場更強勁，他們就會去找工作,。”
其下屬聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)在一個為期兩天的會議后發(fā)表的聲明顯示,，不出所料，美聯(lián)儲稱將在10月份最后一次購買150億美元國債和抵押債券之后,，結(jié)束近期的債券購買計劃,。
美聯(lián)儲周三還發(fā)布了緩慢退出刺激政策的下一階段方案，包括預(yù)期中的貨幣政策機制變化,。
但美聯(lián)儲還表示,，將繼續(xù)推行該政策的主要部分，在“相當長的時間里”,，使短期利率保持在接近零的水平,。外界普遍認為，這個表述意味著美聯(lián)儲不打算在明年年中前上調(diào)利率,。耶倫如同走鋼絲般保持著平衡,，她既強調(diào)不會很快上調(diào)利率，又聲稱美聯(lián)儲可能會提早行動,。她多次表示,，具體時間將由未來幾個月真實的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)決定,。
“市場參與者要記住這一點，這十分重要,，”她說,。
債券投資者——美聯(lián)儲的主要聽眾——把基準10年期國債的收益率推高到了2.6%。在美聯(lián)儲發(fā)表了多項聲明之后,，股市大幅下挫,，然后迅速反彈，恢復(fù)了之前的水平,。標準普爾500指數(shù)收于2001.57點,，上漲了0.13%。
美聯(lián)儲似乎在爭取時間,，在應(yīng)對自身改善經(jīng)濟狀況能力的種種局限的同時,，盡可能地推遲有關(guān)未來行動的決定。在與政策聲明同時發(fā)布的預(yù)期報告中,，美聯(lián)儲官員下調(diào)了對2015年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期,，這意味著他們此前又一次高估了復(fù)蘇的強度。
官員們目前預(yù)計,，2015年的經(jīng)濟增速在2.6%到3%之間,，而6月份的預(yù)期為3%到3.2%。
盡管這些數(shù)據(jù)令人失望,，官員們普遍認為,，這不能成為美聯(lián)儲擴大行動的理由，而是證明了大衰退和人口老齡化及創(chuàng)新能力下降等長期問題,，已經(jīng)給美國的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出潛能造成永久性的傷害,。
如果美聯(lián)儲采取過多行動，不可持續(xù)的增長可能最終導(dǎo)致通脹水平加速上升,。如果過早地停止采取行動，本來可以由更多刺激政策所修復(fù)的破壞就有可能永久地存在下去：許多本來能找到工作的人可能永遠無法重新就業(yè),。
周三,，在新聞發(fā)布會的大部分時間里，耶倫避免回答有關(guān)如何平衡的問題,，經(jīng)常用了很長時間卻沒說出什么內(nèi)容,。
然而，美聯(lián)儲用保持穩(wěn)定的方式,，延長了改善經(jīng)濟狀況的努力,，行動的支持者對此表示贊同。
“美聯(lián)儲沒有釋放在經(jīng)濟方面采取更強硬態(tài)度的信號,，值得稱贊,，美國經(jīng)濟仍然需要他們的支持,，”預(yù)算與政策重點中心(Center for Budget and Policy Priorities)研究員、副總統(tǒng)小約瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)的前經(jīng)濟顧問杰瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)寫道,。“在經(jīng)濟政策制定者中,，美聯(lián)儲是唯一仍舊在設(shè)法采取重大舉措來幫助宏觀經(jīng)濟的。”
批評人士警告稱——多年來他們一直有這樣的警告——美聯(lián)儲干預(yù)得太多,，可能會帶來通貨膨脹及金融動蕩等后果,。眾議院在周三通過了共和黨的一項法案，該法案要求美聯(lián)儲為貨幣政策的制定引入一套規(guī)則,，違背規(guī)則是需要做出解釋,，以此限制美聯(lián)儲的靈活性。外界認為,，由民主黨人控制的參議院不會通過該法案,。
美聯(lián)儲委員會通過投票做出以上決定，投票結(jié)果為8比2,。費城聯(lián)儲銀行( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)行長查爾斯·I·普羅索(Charles I. Plosser),、達拉斯聯(lián)儲銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長理查德·W·費希爾(Richard W. Fisher)辯稱，經(jīng)濟狀況已經(jīng)大幅改善,，美聯(lián)儲可以發(fā)出信號,，表明該機構(gòu)可以更加快速地撤出。
道明銀行集團(TD Bank Group)資深經(jīng)濟學家邁克爾·多萊加(Michael Dolega)表示,，“投票顯示的不同意見反映出,，聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會內(nèi)部，在美國經(jīng)濟需要多少寬松政策才能維持強勁的復(fù)蘇狀態(tài)方面出現(xiàn)了越來越多的分歧,，美聯(lián)儲主席試圖消除分歧,。”
但這種分歧也遮掩了一個事實，即該委員會內(nèi)部就貨幣政策的方向達成廣泛共識,。在參加決策會議的17名官員（其中一些人今年沒有參與投票）中,，只有兩人認為，美聯(lián)儲會在2015年底前提高利率,。
美聯(lián)儲還證實,，該機構(gòu)計劃通過到期債券的再投資來繼續(xù)持有債券，直到開始提高利率,。美聯(lián)儲表示,，他們計劃在不進行資產(chǎn)出售的情況下，自然而然地減少債券持有量,。
美聯(lián)儲在2011年提出了類似的退出計劃,，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，美國的經(jīng)濟狀況辜負了他們的期待。周三發(fā)表的政府報告提醒了我們,，美國經(jīng)濟依然疲弱,。美聯(lián)儲認為2%的年通貨膨脹率對于美國經(jīng)濟來說是最健康的水平，但截至8月,，根據(jù)消費者物價指數(shù)計算的通貨膨脹率在過去十二個月中只上升了1.7%,，美聯(lián)儲傾向于另一項指數(shù)，該指數(shù)顯示的通貨膨脹率甚至更低,。
除此之外,，美聯(lián)儲官員在周三公布的預(yù)測顯示，大多數(shù)人現(xiàn)在認為2015年的通貨膨脹率將維持在2%以下的水平,。
盡管如此,，耶倫表示，美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)竭盡所能,。
“我們在很長時間里將利率維持在零的水平,，”她說。“從一般意義上來說,，我認為與很多標準政策規(guī)定相比,，我們在比較長的時間里維持了較低的利率。”
美聯(lián)儲內(nèi)部存在爭論,，以耶倫為首的一方仍舊愿意等待相當長的時間再提高利率,，另一方則希望快速行動。
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
The economic recovery has stayed on course in recent months, and the Fed’s policy-making committee said on Wednesday that it saw no reason to change its own plans, rejecting calls for a faster retreat from its long-running stimulus campaign.
“There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part time but would prefer full-time work, and too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger,” the central bank’s chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, said at a news conference.
As expected, the Fed said it would move to end its most recent bond-buying campaign after adding a final $15 billion in October to its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, according to a statement published after a two-day meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee.
The Fed also on Wednesday published a description of the plans for the next phase in its slow retreat from its policy to encourage economic growth, including some expected changes in the mechanics of monetary policy.
But it added that it planned to continue the mainstay of its campaign, holding short-term interest rates near zero, for a “considerable time.” The phrase is generally understood to mean that the Fed does not intend to raise rates before the middle of next year. Walking a tightrope, Ms. Yellen emphasized both that a rate increase was not imminent and that the Fed could act sooner. The timing, she said repeatedly, would be determined by data on the actual course of the economy in the coming months.
“That really is so important for market participants to keep in mind,” she said.
Bond investors, the Fed’s primary audience, drove up yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond to 2.6 percent. Stock markets fell sharply in the moments after the Fed released its various statements, then rose sharply, then called the whole thing off. The S.&P. 500-stock index ended the day up 0.13 percent at 2,001.57.
The Fed appeared to be playing for time, delaying decisions about its next steps for as long as possible as it grapples with the limits of its ability to improve economic conditions. Fed officials downgraded their expectations for growth in 2015 in forecasts published at the same time as the policy statement, suggesting that they had once again overestimated the strength of the recovery.
Officials now expect the economy to grow from 2.6 to 3 percent next year, compared with June forecasts for growth of 3 to 3.2 percent.
Despite the disappointing results, officials have generally concluded this is not a reason for the Fed to increase its efforts, but instead evidence that the potential output of the American economy has been permanently reduced by the Great Recession and by long-term problems like an aging population and reduced innovation.
If the Fed pushes too hard, unsustainable growth could eventually generate faster inflation. If it stops pushing too soon, however, damage that could have been repaired by additional stimulus may last indefinitely: Many people who could have found jobs might never return to the work force.
Ms. Yellen spent much of her news conference on Wednesday avoiding questions about this balance, often taking considerable time to say very little.
Still, simply by holding steady, the Fed is prolonging its effort to improve economic conditions, and supporters of the campaign applauded.
“Kudos to the Yellen Fed for not signaling a more hawkish stance in an economy that still needs their support,” wrote Jared Bernstein, a fellow at the Center on Budget Policy and Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “When it comes to economic policy makers still trying to do something big to help the macroeconomy, the Fed’s the only game in town.”
Critics warned — as they have for several years — that the Fed was doing too much, with potential consequences including inflation and financial instability. The House on Wednesday passed a Republican bill intended to limit the Fed’s flexibility by requiring it to adopt a rule for making monetary policy, and to explain its deviations. The measure was not expected to progress in the Democrat-controlled Senate.
The Fed committee acted by a vote of 8 to 2. Charles I. Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, argued that economic conditions had improved sufficiently for the Fed to signal it could begin to retreat more quickly.
“The growing dissent in voting reflects the increasing disagreement amongst the F.O.M.C. that the Fed chair has been trying to iron out, regarding how much more accommodation the economy still needs to a sustain a robust recovery,” said Michael Dolega, senior economist at the TD Bank Group.
Yet the dissent also obscures the extent of broad agreement within the committee about the course of monetary policy. Of the 17 officials who participate in the policy-making meetings (some of whom do not hold votes this year), all but two predicted that the Fed would raise rates before the end of 2015.
The central bank also affirmed that it planned to maintain its bond holdings, by replacing matured bonds, until after it starts to raise interest rates. It said that it then planned to allow its holdings to dwindle naturally, without asset sales.
The Fed issued a similar exit plan in 2011, only to find that the economy disappointed its expectations. A government report on Wednesday offered a reminder that the economy remains weak. The Fed regards 2 percent annual inflation as the healthiest pace for the economy, but inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose just 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in August — and the Fed prefers a separate measure that shows even less inflation than the price index.
Moreover, the forecasts of Fed officials published on Wednesday showed that most now expect inflation to remain below 2 percent during 2015.
Nonetheless, Ms. Yellen suggested the Fed had done what it could.
“We have been at zero for a very long time,” she said. “In a general sense I think we have been lower for longer than many standard policy rules would suggest.”
The internal debate is now between officials, led by Ms. Yellen, still willing to wait a considerable time before raising interest rates, and those who want to move sooner.

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