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2015年,，煤炭行業(yè)似乎連連傳出壞消息,。
反對化石燃料的活動人士持續(xù)不斷地呼吁從煤炭生產公司撤資,，同時煤炭價格和生產商的股價持續(xù)下降,。下月在巴黎舉行的全球氣候變化會議，或許將使年尾出現更多反對煤炭和其他化石能源的活動,。
自2011年以來,，廣泛作為全球基準的澳大利亞熱煤價格已經下跌了約60%。在美國,，沃爾特能源(Walter Energy)和阿爾法自然資源公司(Alpha Natural Resources)等知名煤礦企業(yè)已因無力應對煤炭價格的下跌,，進入破產程序。
并非所有生產這種充足但越來越不受歡迎的燃料的礦商都已做好認輸的準備,。但隨著一些關鍵市場似乎開始不可阻擋地下跌,，所有礦商都必須適應這個全球行業(yè)在形態(tài)和重要性方面發(fā)生的痛苦變化。
考慮美國的例子,，美國能源情報署(EIA)的最新數據表明,，煤炭產量正處于至少2009年以來的最低水平：截至6月底的3個月里，煤炭產出比去年同期降低了14%,。
隨著電力部門轉向更便宜的天然氣,，煤炭消費量正在下降。同時,，由于更嚴格的排放規(guī)則,，預計會有更多燃煤發(fā)電廠關閉。
今年4月,，美國天然氣發(fā)電首次超過了煤炭發(fā)電,。
根據國際能源署(IEA)的說法，到2019年,，美國的煤炭需求量會回落到上世紀80年代初的水平,。目前美國的煤炭出口也處于五年來的最低水平,，而平均出口價格則從2011年的每噸150美元跌至每噸80美元。
考慮到這樣的預測,，不難理解籠罩在美國煤炭礦商身上的陰霾,。美國最大煤炭公司皮博迪能源(Peabody Energy)的股票在過去5年中下跌了97%。
中國的煤炭使用也在快速變化,。中國被位于巴黎的國際能源署稱為“煤炭界的中心”,。2013年，中國煤炭需求量占全球的一半以上,。但隨著中國經濟減速并轉為能源密集程度較低的發(fā)展模式,，中國對煤炭的需求也在放緩。
中國也開始認識到空氣污染的環(huán)境問題,。根據美國能源情報署的說法,，中國的煤炭使用量“2014年基本與上年持平”。其數據表明,，今年迄今中國的煤炭進口比去年同期降低30%。
然而,，預計世界上其他一些地方的煤炭使用量將快速增長,。上月對東南亞的情況進行關注的國際能源署表示，接下來25年,，該地區(qū)對煤炭的需求將成為所有能源來源中增長最快的,，取代該地區(qū)能源組合中石油的地位。與世界其他地區(qū)的趨勢相反,，未來25年,，在這個增長最快的地區(qū)，煤炭在發(fā)電中的比重預計將從今天的不到三分之一增長到50%左右,。
世界第二大煤炭進口國印度的煤炭需求預計將進一步強勁增長,，煤炭使用從大西洋整體轉移至太平洋盆地的趨勢已經牢牢確立。
“對許多國家來說,，未來數年的能源選擇將是煤炭,，”世界煤炭協(xié)會(World Coal Association)首席執(zhí)行官本杰明斯波頓(Benjamin Sporton)表示。
對于煤炭支持者來說,，這意味著將更加需要能夠降低這種燃料環(huán)境成本的技術——從更高效的發(fā)電站到碳捕獲和封存技術等,。
然而，持不同意見的人士會在此時煤炭行業(yè)面臨財務困境之際對其施加更多壓力,，以抑制產出,。
呼吁對煤炭行業(yè)撤資的活動人士聲稱，他們成功地促使一批投資基金同意減少或者終止對化石能源的投資,，盡管這類承諾中許多只影響“純粹”的煤炭礦業(yè)公司,，而非更大型的多樣化經營礦商,，煤炭占后者盈利的比重更小。
煤炭礦商的估值下降目前更多是與供過于求和需求乏力有關,，而非因為上述呼吁撤資人士所聲稱取得的成功,。
然而，這些活動旨在對一些礦商施加更為持久的壓力,，在這些礦商試圖穩(wěn)住煤炭在全球能源組合中的地位之際,，這是又一個使事情復雜的因素。（中國進出口網）
The bad news for the coal industry has seemed relentless throughout 2015.
While campaigners against fossil fuels have kept up a steady drumbeat of calls to disinvest from companies producing coal, prices and share values of producers have continued to head south. The year may end with more moves against coal and other fossil fuels at global climate change talks next month in Paris.
Thermal coal prices from Australia, a widely used global benchmark, are down about 60 per cent from 2011. In the US, some well-known coal miners including Walter Energy and Alpha Natural Resources have entered bankruptcy, unable to cope with the price dro.
Not all miners of this abundant but increasingly unloved fuel are ready to throw in the towel. But all are havin to adapt to wrenching change in the shape and importance of a global industry as some key markets enter what seems inexorable decline.
Consider the US, wher the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration show coal production at the lowest level since at least 2009: output in the three months to the end of June was 14 per cent lower than in the same period last year.
Consumption is declining as the power sector turns to cheap natural gas, while more coal-fired power plants are expected to close in response to tougher emissions rules.
In April, the US generated more of its electricity from gas than from coal for the first time.
By 2019, US coal demand will be back to levels last seen in the early 1980s, according to the International Energy Agency. US coal exports are also at their lowest level in five years, while the average export price is down from $150 per ton in 2011 to $80.
Given such forecasts, it is easy to understand the gloom over US miners. Shares in Peabody Energy, the largest US coal miner, are down 97 per cent over the past five years.
In China, which the Paris-based International Energy Agency calls “the centre of the coal world”, coal use is also changing fast. The country accounted for more than half of global coal demand in 2013. But China’s demand is slowing as the economy cools and switches to less energy intensive forms of growth.
China is also waking up to environmental concerns over air pollution. China’s use of coal was “essentially flat in 2014”, according to the US EIA. Its data suggest imports are down 30 per cent so far in 2015 compared with last year.
Yet there are other areas of the world wher coal use is expected to grow quickly. Focusing last month on Southeast Asia, the IEA said coal demand would expand at the fastest rate among all energy sources over the next 25 years, overtaking oil in the region’s energy mix. Contrary to the trend in other parts of the world, coal’s share in power generation in the fast-growing region is expected to increase — from less than one-third today to about 50 per cent over the next quarter century.
India, the world’s second-largest coal importer, is expected to see further strong growth in coal demand and an overall shift in coal use from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is well entrenched.
“For many countries the energy choice for years to come will be coal,” says Benjamin Sporton, chief executive of the World Coal Association.
For supporters of coal, this implies a greater need for technology that enables the fuel to be used with less environmental cost — from more efficient power stations to carbon capture and storage techniques.
Yet other voices would rather put more pressure on the coal industry at a time of financial distress to curb output.
Divestment campaigners claim success in prompting a host of investment funds to agree to reduce or end investments in fossil fuels, although many of the commitments made will only affect “pure play” coal miners and not the larger diversified miners, wher a smaller percentage of profits stems from coal.
The plunge in coal miners’ valuations so far has more to do with oversupply and lacklustre demand than with the success claimed by the pro-divestment effort.
Yet the campaign is set to put further enduring pressure on some miners and is another complicating factor as they try to shore up coal’s role in the global energy mix.
